Motte has tear in elbow, Boggs to start 2013 as Cards closer

Posted on March 23, 2013 by JD

The Cards just announced that Jason Motte will be shut down with a tear in his right elbow, and Mitchell Boggs will be the Cards closer to start the year.  As I always say, you never have a pitching surplus.  What looked to be a strength heading into 2013 in the Cards BP will now be tested early.  This move immediately means that both Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller will head north with the Cards, but it also takes what I thought to be the Cards greatest strength in the BP in Trevor Rosenthal and puts him in a designated role.

Instead of having Rosenthal to be that guy to come in when tough situations come up with men on base to put out a fire, he’ll probably be the designated to the  7th or 8th inning.  I understand the Cards going with Boggs as the closer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point in the early season if Rosenthal is moved into that role.  I think Rosenthal has the stuff to be the next Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel.  Speaking of Chapman, the Reds have revised their plan and instead of moving him to the rotation, he will continue to close games.

The Cards say Motte will be evaluated again soon, but I’m not sure you can ever be optimistic when you hear the word tear with a pitcher’s throwing elbow.  It will be even more important for Fernando Salas to return to 2011 form now (which I think he will since his kidney stones are gone), and hopefully Eduardo Sanchez gets off to a fast start as the closer in AAA and can be counted on again if another injury occurs.  Michael Wacha, who has all of 21 professional IP, might just make it to STL in 2013 as well.  Yadier Molina says Wacha is ready now.

With our annual UCB predictions coming up that I’m working on, it was a toss-up between the Cards and Reds in the NLC.  Now, I have to give the edge to the Reds, who once again have remained injury free with their pitchers so far this year.  I’m not sure the Reds can count on never missing a start from a SP like they did in 2012, but only time will tell.  Those predictions will be posted before the season begins.

It took Motte a while, but he finally had it all working in 2012.  After getting hit hard early with his fastball, he was able to pitch effectively with his cutter the final 4 months of the season and was very dominant.  The Cards recently signed him to a 2 year contract because of the dominance he showed once he could locate the cutter.

The good news is the Cards have prepared for this by hanging onto their young arms.  GM John Mozeliak has resisted trading away the future for needs that aren’t really there.  Many fans are not happy with Pete Kozma as the starting SS, but those fans fail to understand what the Cards are trying to do not just in 2013, but through 2020.  Now, we’ll get a chance to see that plan in action.  It’s probably a little sooner than Mo would have liked, but the depth in 2013 doesn’t hang on the likes of Victor Marte, Barret Browning and Sam Freeman.

For those who may suggest the Cards need to trade for a proven closer, go ahead and zip it up, it’s not going to happen.

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Matt Carpenter at 2B gives the Cards a lot of flexibility

Posted on March 20, 2013 by JD

By most accounts, it appears Matt Carpenter will be the primary 2B in 2013 for the Cardinals.  With this move, the Cardinals bench goes from somewhat of a weakness to a strength.  Ronny Cedeno was cut, and it appears Matt Adams is in.  The Cards will go with an unusual bench alignment to start the year, where Daniel Descalso will be the backup at 3B, SS and 2B.  It appears Shane Robinson has solidified himself as the 4th OF’er, and because both Allen Craig and Carpenter can play LF and RF, Adams will not only make the team but receive plenty of AB’s.

This move also helps Pete Kozma, but more on that later.  For now, it appears the bench will be Ty Wigginton, Tony Cruz, Robinson, Descalso and Adams.  With the new schedule having interleague play throughout the whole year, along with Carlos Beltran being rested more, Adams should see at least 2 starts a week at 1B (one for Craig and another for Craig being moved to RF for Beltran’s day off).  One thing Mike Matheny has stressed is more rest for the veterans in 2013, which might also extend to a few days for Matt Holliday here and there.

Although Wigginton’s numbers have been in decline for a few years, the Cards will at least have the presence of 2 power bats off the bench in the late innings, Wigginton from the right side and Adams from the left.  I still think Descalso will get 40-50 games or so starting at 2B, especially when Jake Westbrook is the SP.  Along with Westbrook being the king of groundball outs, Matheny will want to keep Descalso sharp.  On those days, you have Carpenter coming off the bench in the late innings.

While talk is already heating up on whether Carpenter will make Kolten Wong expendable in the future at 2B over at CardsTalk, I’d say we wait and see at least a few regular season games first.  Although Carpenter is well ahead of where Skip Schumaker was when he was made a 2B according to Jose Oquendo, he’s still going to make mistakes and have a learning curve on defense.  We should all just look at this as a move that gives Wong more time to develop for now.  Carpenter is a bit tall for a 2B, but I’m anxious to see his bat in the lineup on a regular basis.

Once again, the Cards will have one of deepest lineups in the NL, if not all of MLB.  Matheny will have a lot to work with, and Kozma will be an afterthought as the season progresses IMO.  All the Cards need from Kozma is solid defense.  Let’s also not forget that Kozma is only 24 and he still may be respectable on offense.   He wouldn’t be the first guy to be a late bloomer.  Because of the deep lineup, Kozma is going to see better pitches than many 8th place hitters, so having Carpenter at 2B helps him as well.  Not only will his bat be hidden in the lineup a little better if he struggles, he won’t have to look over his shoulder at someone like Cedeno.  Hopefully the talk of landing Troy Tulowitzki will stop, and the Cards hang onto to their top pitching prospects.  I just don’t see the offense being the weakness of the 2013 Cards.

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Cards will be fine with Kozma as the shortstop: WS winning shortstops since 2001

Posted on March 11, 2013 by JD

Pete Kozma played above and beyond at the end of 2012 compared to what he did in the minors.  Although he was a 1st round draft pick in 2007, he hasn’t ever really put it together over a long period.  Cards fans seem to be overreacting, and not just a little, about Kozma opening the season as the everyday shortstop.  One thought that many of the fans never seem to have is that Kozma is quite possibly a late bloomer.  Even if he’s not, I’m not sure I understand the overreaction to everyone from Bernie Miklasz to your average fan.

Kozma is going to hit 8th in one of the best lineups in all of MLB.  That lineup will be even more potent if Matt Carpenter makes the transition to 2B, and according to Jose Oquendo and Mike Matheny, it looks like he will.  Over the last few months, rumors have surfaced about the Cards possibly trading away pitching prospects for Asdrubal Cabrera and Troy Tulowitzki.  John Mozeliak has done the right thing in saying no thanks, but many Cards fans don’t want to hear this.

So, going back to 2001, let’s take a look at the stats of shortstops (AVG, OBP, SLG) on teams that won the World Series, as well as the key SP’s from those teams.

2001—Arizona Diamondbacks—Tony Womack .266/.307/.345

Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling

2002—Anaheim Angels—David Eckstein .293/.363/.388

John Lackey, Ramon Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn

2003—Florida Marlins—Alex Gonzalez .256/.313/.443

Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Dontrelle Willis

2004—Boston Red Sox—Orlando Cabrera .294/.320/.465

Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez

2005—Chicago White Sox—Juan Uribe .252/.301/.412

Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland

2006—St. Louis Cardinals—David Eckstein .292/.350/.344

Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver

2007—Boston Red Sox—Julio Lugo .237/.294/.349

Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Jon Lester

2008—Philadelphia Phillies—Jimmy Rollins .277/.349/.437

Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Brett Myers

2009—New York Yankees—Derek Jeter .334/.406/.465

CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett

2010—San Francisco Giants—Juan Uribe .248/.310/.440 (Edgar Renteria .276/.332/.374)

Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner

2011—St. Louis Cardinals—Ryan Theriot .271/.321/.342 (Rafael Furcal  .255/.316/.418)

Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia, Edwin Jackson

2012—San Francisco Giants—Brandon Crawford .248/.304/.349

Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong

So, since 2001, most teams have had less than stellar play for the SS position, but managed to win it all with this formula in every year except 2008 and 2009 (Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins).  Still, it was the pitching that got them there and put them over the top.  There’s only one guaranteed HOF’er in that group in Jeter, and another one possibly in Rollins.  On the other hand, the number of SP’s headed to the HOF from that group are Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte.  You can also put Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels in the possibility of reaching that status someday with it still being too early to say for certain.  In the Hall of Very Good from these WS winners you have Chris Carpenter, Mark Buehrle, Josh Beckett and Jamie Moyer.  All the other pitchers on the list were dominant or close to it at one point, even if just for a few years, or just during their time in the playoffs like Jeff Suppan and Brad Penny.  The only team that didn’t have a true ace was the 2002 Angels.

The point here, like always, is that pitching is going to be the determining factor in how far the Cards advance every year, just like every other team.  Trading key pieces of the future like Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez isn’t something I think Mo will be doing any time in the near future.  Like it or not, the Cardinals have a team built around heavy hitters at the corner spots and the best catcher in the game.  As long as Kozma is good with the glove, the Cards can live with his offense.

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Michael Wacha and Eduardo Sanchez

Posted on March 2, 2013 by JD

We all remember Eduardo Sanchez from 2011.  He struck out 35 in 30 IP.  He had an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.0.  He looked like the closer of the future with the Cards.  His stuff was electric right out of the gate.  Fast forward to 2012, and it all went wrong for Sanchez.  Bothered by shoulder stiffness most of the year, Sanchez struggled to repeat his success from 2011.  He was wild and inconsistent, but the injury to his shoulder was the main reason for that.  His numbers with the big club were just as bad as they were in Memphis.

I really hate putting much stock into what goes on in Spring Training games, especially early.  However, I don’t in any way want to discount performances as if they don’t matter, especially pitchers.  So far, and again, it’s early, Sanchez has faced 9 batters in 3 games, struck out 5, and hasn’t allowed a walk or a base hit.  He’s only gone to a 3 ball count once.  I can see Mike Matheny grinning at the thought of another bullet coming out of his BP.  I’ll say it again, you can never have enough pitching.

Michael Wacha is turning the most heads in ST.  He is getting praises from everyone on how he seems to pitch like a seasoned veteran.  I got a chance to watch the replay of the Cards-Mets game on the MLBN from earlier this week the other night, a game in which Wacha went 3 IP, and he did indeed look like he’s been there before.  Of the 10 Mets hitters he faced, he struck out 5.  In his 2 appearances, Wacha has a line of 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R (unearned), 0 BB and 8 K’s.  His changeup made hitters look really bad, and his fastball was from 91-94 MPH with movement.  Wacha’s curveball is said to be a work in progress and his 3rd best pitch, but it looked pretty dominant as well.

Unless the Cards have a few more injuries to the pitching staff, Wacha will likely start at either AA or AAA.  He was just drafted last year, but moved all the way to AA by the end of 2012.  His line in his first year as a pro from rookie ball to AA was a 0.86 ERA, a .057 WHIP and 40 K’s in 21 IP.  Wacha is currently the Cards 5th or 6th best prospect depending on which list you look at, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to take him long to reach the majors.  Yadier Molina says that Wacha can pitch in the big leagues right now, and compliments Wacha on his great attitude and mound presence.  Matheny says he looks like a 30 year old veteran, and Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling, who did the Mets-Cards game announcing the other day just seemed blown away by Wacha and how deep the Cards farm system is.

From everything being said, I can’t say I’ll be surprised if Wacha makes his debut in St. Louis sometime in 2013 after the ASB. Injuries happen, the only question is where Wacha will rank after ST on the depth chart when you factor in that Carlos Martinez, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly are ahead of him.  The Cards are going to want to monitor the IP of all these youngsters, but it’s safe to say that the pitching staff looks good for years to come.  Yes, folks, it is indeed a good time to be a Cards fan.

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An early look at the Cards vs. the Reds: How the Cards #1 farm system will keep them in the race in 2013

Posted on February 18, 2013 by JD

There’s always a surprise team in MLB each year and in most cases, one in both the NL and AL.  In the NL Central, the Pirates are starting to put it together and the Brewers still have some talent to make things interesting.  The Cubs have some pitching, but losing fewer than 90 games will probably be progress as Theo Epstein continues to rebuild his new club.  In the end, it will come down between the Cardinals and the Reds in 2013, and the Cardinals recently ranked #1 farm system in all of MLB will be their weapon of choice.

The last time the Cardinals had a farm system ranked #1 was in 1984.  As some of you know, along with being the manager from 1980-1990, Whitey Herzog was also the GM of the Cardinals from 1980-1982.  Some of the top players from that developing system were Vince Coleman (10th round, 1982), Terry Pendelton (7th round, 1982), Danny Cox (13th round, 1981) and Todd Worrell (1st round, 1982).  On top of these picks as GM, Whitey traded for Ozzie Smith, Willie McGee and Lonnie Smith along with signing Darrell Porter as a free agent as well.

The point here is what that system and those players did for the Cards and how it correlates to what the team is doing now.  After winning it all in 1982, the Cards reached the WS again in ’85 and ’87.  Under GM John Mozeliak, the Cards have stockpiled young talent and resisted the temptation to make trades.  The Cardinals have to do this to compete in short and long term with the market they’re in, and this will be a recipe for success for years to come.  The most amazing thing about this is what the Cards have been able to do on the big club, avoiding rebuilding like almost any other team has to do to stockpile these young players.

Many players in the Cardinals system that aren’t among their top 15 prospects would be in the top 10 for many other clubs.  Some of these players in the minors include 23 year old Michael Blazek, who has averaged 8.9 S0/9 in his career.  Eric Fornataro had a 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at AA in 2012 while finishing 17 games.  Greg Garcia, a shortstop, had a .400 OBP in A+ in 2011 and a .408 OBP in AA in 2012.  This is the great depth I’m talking about.  These are the names of a few prospects that would crack most MLB teams top 10 prospects.

In my opinion, even without Chris Carpenter, this is why the Cardinals have a great shot at not only winning the NLC in 2013 and avoiding the WC one game winner take all, but again making another deep run in October.  The pitching depth is still a strength.  Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly will battle for the 5th spot in the rotation.  If Jaime Garcia goes down with his shoulder again, another from this group will step in.  The BP is deep enough in that if Garcia stays healthy, at least 1 of the 3 mentioned will probably start the year at AAA.

Here’s what the 25 man roster will probably look like on opening day, save for injuries:

  1. Furcal-SS
  2. Beltran-RF
  3. Holliday-LF
  4. Craig-1B
  5. Molina-C
  6. Freese-3B
  7. Carpenter-2B
  8. Jay-CF

Starters

  1. Wainwright
  2. Lynn
  3. Garcia
  4. Westbrook
  5. Miller or Rosenthal

Relievers

  1. Motte-CL
  2. Boggs
  3. Mujica
  4. Choate
  5. Scrabble
  6. Salas
  7. Rosenthal or Kelly

Bench

  1. Descalso
  2. Wigginton
  3. Cedeno
  4. Chambers
  5. Cruz

That 25-man roster leaves off one of Miller, Rosenthal or Kelly, along with Pete Kozma, Ryan Jackson and Shane Robinson.  For now, I’ll assume that Matt Carpenter will be the primary 2B, given the push for how hard they want his bat in the lineup on a regular basis.  Adron Chambers will be the 4th OF’er, and I think they’ll go with Carpenter as a 5th, allowing Daniel Descalso to play 2B on those days unless Carpenter just doesn’t adjust well on defense at 2B.

Where it gets interesting for position players is if Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday or David Freese go down with an injury.  If it’s Craig, Matt Adams is waiting in the wings at AAA.  Adams is one of the few power bats in the Cards system that is handicapped to one position, which is 1B.  Mozeliak says Adams has little left to prove in AAA, so expect to see Adams if Craig goes down. If it’s any of the other 3, along with possibly Jon Jay, the Cardinals might go ahead and bring Oscar Taveras up.  The Cardinals would prefer if Taveras and Kolten Wong (2B) spent a full year at AAA, but they’re not going to hesitate and leave a hole in the lineup if an injury occurs.  Taveras is the clear cut #1 hitter in all of minor league baseball right now, with many comparing him to a left handed hitting Vladimir Guerrero.  The only thing left for Taveras to improve on is defense in CF although the Cards see him as a corner OF as his body fills out.

Players I haven’t mentioned yet that are knocking on the door are Carlos Martinez, who is commonly compared on the high side to Pedro Martinez, as well as Michael Wacha, the Cards 1st round pick out of Texas A&M in 2012.  Wacha was moved all the way to AA in his first pro season, and many scouts project him to be ready as of the middle of 2013 if the need exists.  Again, the Cards would prefer to give him a full season in the minors, but scouts say his changeup is MLB ready and his curveball is close.

The Reds appear to have an edge on the Cards right now on paper, but not by much.  They added Shin-Soo Choo (CF) as their leadoff hitter, and with Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and a very nice complementary blend of other position players like Ryan Ludwick, Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart, I would say they have a very close edge on offense.  One thing that is not likely to happen for them in 2013 as it did in 2012 is them being able to get through 162 games without an injury to one of their SP’s.

I’m not so sure Aroldis Chapman is going to give the Reds more value as a SP than he did as a closer.  He certainly won’t be able to air it out at over 100 MPH through 6-7 innings every 5 days.  The most he ever pitched in a season in Cuba was 118 innings.  If it doesn’t work out, they do have Mike Leake to fall back on and still have a stocked starting 5 of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo and Leake.  The Reds BP is also just as good as the Cards as currently constructed, and Jonathan Broxton as the closer is what affords them the opportunity to try Chapman as a starter.  Middle relief will be led by Sean Marshall, with plenty of big arms leading up to him.

What the Reds don’t have is a great farm system.  They do have a speedster in OF’er Billy Hamilton, who stole a minor league record 155 bases in 2012.  After that, position player depth is scarce.  Along with Hamilton in the minors is SP Tony Cingrani.  SP Daniel Corcino is another prospect to top the top 100 minor league players that might be ready in 2013 if needed.  After that, the Reds top position players and pitchers are in the low minors with an ETA of 2015.

There are more than a few things that stand out from 2012 that will make it difficult for the Reds to repeat their 9 game division win over the Cardinals.  I’ve already talked about the depth the Cardinals have.  When you consider that Rosenthal is the 4th or 5th best prospect the Cards have on most lists, and add in what he did at the end of 2012, it’s puts in into a better perspective.

The other things I haven’t mentioned are:

  1.  The Pythagorean Winning Percentage—The PWP is an estimate of a team’s winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed.  Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky.   The Reds were 97-65 in 2012 but had a PWP of 91-71.  The Cardinals were 88-74 and had a PWP of 93-69.
  2. Extra-Innings—The Cards were 6-12, the Reds were 7-7.
  3. One-Run Games—The Cards were 21-26, the Reds were 31-21.

Now, I know the games are played on the field.  I’m not a stat geek, but I do like to mix and match common sense and sabermetrics.  One thing that almost certainly won’t happen in 2013 is the Cards blowing as many games in the middle innings as they did in 2012.  After trading for Edward Mujica, things were fine, and that was even with Mike Matheny not having another LOOGY to use besides Scrabble.  After Rosenthal was added, the BP was a strength.  Fernando Salas had kidney stones to account for his bad performance to start the year, and Victor Marte and Sam Freeman were exposed a bit(Freeman has added a knuckle curve this offseason by the way).  These things most likely won’t happen this year.  Mo added Randy Choate this offseason, and he should also have Kelly out of the BP for a full year.

On the flip side, Walt Jocketty addressed the Reds biggest weakness by signing Choo as a leadoff hitter.  No longer will Drew Stubbs be striking out over 200 times at the top of the Reds lineup, and there will be more opportunities with men on base for Votto, Phillips and Bruce.  The Reds also did fine without Votto for an extended period last year, so it won’t be easy for the Cards if they fall behind early in the standings.  We also know that Jocketty will address any needs the Reds have at the trade deadline.

I’m going to get into this more as the season approaches, but I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself at this time.  The Cards and Reds should finish 1-2 in some order.  I feel the Cards depth is enough to overcome almost any injury on the field, save for Adam Wainwright, who will need and who I fully expect to pitch like he did before TJS.  I’d love for some of you to weigh in on this topic for now and as the season approaches….thanks for reading!

Posted in Feb2013 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments