Cards still in good position despite BP problems

Posted on April 22, 2013 by JD

The Cardinals officially have a problem with the BP, but I don’t think it’s time to panic just yet.  Mike Matheny is in a tough position.  You can add John Mozeliak to that list as well.  One thing that sticks out is that Joe Kelly has only been used twice since April 7th.  I’m not sure what to make of that, but I feel that he’s an option that isn’t being used enough.  Matheny seems like he’s trying to force Mitchell Boggs right now, and I understand why, but I think it’s time for Boggs and Kelly to switch roles.  Give Boggs some low stress situations and see how he responds.  I have no idea why the Cardinals and Boggs agreed to have him change his stance from last year, but it’s just not working.  Opposing hitters are squaring the ball off him like they know what pitch is coming.  His stuff is too good for that to happen.

Because of struggles by BP, the Cardinals have dropped a lot of close games, but it’s not all Boggs.  Trevor Rosenthal and Fernando Salas aren’t the same, but they are making progress.  I think most fans would think that Salas has an ERA higher than what it is at 4.70.  His WHIP is 1.17.  Rosenthal has a 4.22 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, and does have 13 K’s in 10.2 IP. 

The Cards are 10-8 but have only played 6 games at home.  As a worst case scenario, they’re going to come home 10-11.  I know the Nationals will be out for blood because of the way they lost the NLDS to us last year, but I don’t think the Cards get swept with Shelby Miller, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia starting the 3 games.  If Garcia has another bad road start, I think you have to give serious consideration in giving spot starts for him on the road in the future.  Whatever it is, Jaime just seems to unravel on the road, and compounds it when errors are made behind him by walking guys and leaving balls up in the zone.  Many are calling him a mental midget.  That’s a bit harsh, but something isn’t right with his road and home splits over the last couple of years.

The Cards have had a brutal schedule to open the year.  Beating up on the Cubs and Marlins isn’t something they’ve had a chance to do yet.  For those who think the Reds are just going to completely run away with the division, keep in mind the Reds just had 4 games at home with the Marlins and will now have 3 at home with the Cubs.  Also, while the Cards have been on the road for all but 6 games, the opposite is true for the Reds, who’ve had just 6 road games.

When I looked at the schedule to start the year, I thought if the Cards could come out of April with a .500 record they would be in good shape.  I still feel that way.

Getting back to the BP, the Cardinals do have options.  Matheny has to let things play out for a while still, but if the struggles continue, I think we will see some radical changes.  I don’t think Mo is going to let 2013 get away without giving a chance to Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez.  The Cards don’t want to rush either one, but Mo isn’t going to sit on his hands either.  Eric Fornataro may get a call soon, as well as Keith Butler.  I don’t think the Cards will trade for help without giving the kids a shot, that’s just not the way it’s going to work from now on.  If they do make a trade, you can be sure names like Wacha, Martinez, Kolten Wong and other high upside players won’t be involved.

Going into the Philly series and looking at facing Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Kyle Kendrick, most fans would have been happy for a series split.  Because of the way Garcia pitched on the road and because we blew a chance to take 3 of 4 when facing Kendrick in the final game leaves fans with a sour taste though.  I understand that and feel the same way.

One thing we know with this group of guys is that they’re resilient.  The offense doesn’t ever seem to let a bad game carry over to the next one. 

As long as the SP and offense continues to stay a step ahead, the BP will eventually work itself out.  Boggs needs to change his stance back to what worked in 2012 and watch a lot of video, and Rosenthal needs to locate his fastball better.  As bad as the BP has been, the Cards are still 10-8.  I’m not worried yet, but my pulse is starting to skip a beat in close games.

The other thing to note is that Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and David Freese haven’t caught fire yet.  The Cardinals are scoring runs by leading the league with RISP.  I expect these things to equal out, so again, no worries.  Stay calm Cardinal Nation, this is a good to potentially great team going through a rough patch in a few areas.

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Cards take 2 of 3 from Brewers but let one get away

Posted on April 15, 2013 by JD

Right now, Mitchell Boggs must feel the weight of the world on his shoulders.  He didn’t make a bad pitch to Carlos Gomez, Gomez just stuck his bat out and hit a blooper to shallow RF.  Even after going 7-5 in the first 12 games, many fans are still inching closer to the edge of the cliff.  What was thought to be a major strength heading into 2013, the BP has had their tough moments.  Mike Matheny is in a tough position.  Because of Trevor Rosenthal’s early struggles, Boggs has been in a couple of one-run games that haven’t gone the Cards way.

Help from the minors is not looking as good as it was when the season started.  Michael Wacha is having a hard time adjusting in AAA, but it’s still early.  Eduardo Sanchez, who looked great in ST and was off to a great start at Memphis, was put on the DL yesterday with a forearm strain.  The other options are Sam Freeman, Victor Marte and Maikel Cleto, and none of them are doing well in Memphis either.

I’m not sure what Matheny is going to do in the next save situation, but I’m not sure that pulling Boggs from the closers role is the right thing to do right now.  Rosenthal is having some control problems and Edward Mujica seems to be a better fit in the 7th or 8th inning. If you throw Mujica into the fire and he doesn’t get it done, you have your main 3 guys with confidence issues.   Joe Kelly has been hit hard but hasn’t pitched much.  Fernando Salas just isn’t the same as he was in 2011, but again, it’s still early.

What’s really going to be difficult is when the Cards SP’s start having trouble.  So far, they’re leading MLB in ERA.  The Cards BP is last in ERA.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals kicked the tires on K-Rod at some point soon if the struggles continue, as he’s still unsigned.  Right now though, I think you have to let it play out until the end of April to see how both Boggs and Rosenthal respond.

After a 1-3 start, the Cards have taken 2 of 3 in each series.  Most of the time most fans would be happy with that, but because of the way the Cards lost their last 2 games I understand the frustration.  The Reds have dropped 5 in a row and Johnny Cueto is heading to the DL with a lat strain.  The Cards beat Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse in the Brewers series.  There’s a lot to look forward to with this team, but most don’t want to hear about that right now.

Another option that might be on the horizon is Keith Butler.  He was just promoted from AA to AAA yesterday after Sanchez went on the DL.

The bottom line for me is I think you let it play out over at least the 10 game road trip the Cards start tonight and see what happens.  We all know that Boggs and Rosenthal have great stuff.  Right now, Rosenthal is just having trouble locating his fastball, and Boggs hasn’t caught a couple of key breaks.  He hasn’t helped himself after a couple of junk hits, but I still think he’s the best option until Rosenthal gains control.  You can call me an apologist if you want, but I’m not sure pulling the plug and switching roles 12 games in is the right thing to do.

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Cards take 2 of 3 from Reds after Opening Day jitters—Motte probably done for 2013

Posted on April 11, 2013 by JD

There seems to be something about Opening Day in St. Louis that adds to the pressure on the players.  The Cardinals are now 1-6 in their last 7 home openers.  I think a little of it has to do with players not being on their normal pre-game schedules.  The rest of it might be being in the presence of the now 6 living Hall of Famers the Cardinals bring out.  I can see how shaking hands with Bruce Sutter, Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Whitey Herzog, Ozzie Smith and Red Schoendienst might throw some of the younger guys off.  Combine that with a few weakly hit balls off of Mitchell Boggs in the 9th and his 4 walks, and the Reds took game 1.  The sky is falling crowd was out in full force.

Overall, I thought the Cards did a great job with the ceremonies and had a very nice tribute to Stan Musial.  It wasn’t the same without Stan, and it must have been an emotional roller coaster for players and the fans.  There were some things that caught my attention that are worth noting.  Chris Carpenter removed his hat before shaking the hands of the HOF’ers and Lance Lynn must have been watching, because as the next in line he did as well.  It seemed like Red was telling some pretty good jokes to each passing veteran.  The Dalmatian that was on the wagon being pulled by the Clydesdales seemed as nervous as some of the players, as the guy sitting next to him had to keep putting his hand on his rear to try and get him to sit still.  I know my dog would like to think that 50,000 people were cheering for him.

I really hope Jaime Garcia’s shoulder holds up in 2013 as the movement on his pitches was incredible.  His 10 K’s in 6.2 IP was a good sign.  Except for walking the pitcher with 2 outs and nobody on in the 3rd inning, he seemed to not have any mental hiccups.  Trevor Rosenthal gave up a run and gave up another hold, but I don’t think there’s any reason to worry.  Again, let’s wait until the month is over before we start saying what a guy can or can’t do.  Remember that he’s only 22.  Boggs just had one of those games where nothing went right.  The only thing I do question at this point and time is why Boggs and the Cards felt the need to change the way he stands on the mound.  It’s hard to argue with the results from last year.  If it ain’t broke, you know. 

Like I said it was just a weird game.  When someone like Shin-Soo Choo drops the two fly balls like he did, you just think to yourself it’s going to be one of those great days for the Cards, and then the 9th inning happens.  Anyway, I’m not worried about Boggs or Rosenthal.

On to game 2 of the series, and Lynn just looked great.  His fastball command and velocity was back as he had his way with the Reds, also striking out 10.  The Cardinals were shut down through the first 5 inning against Bronson Arroyo, and then Matt Adams went deep with a 2-run HR hitting for Lynn.  The Cards have a really good problem with Adams on the bench.  With the rest that Mike Matheny plans on giving Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday, Adams should see about 3 starts every 7 games.  When Holliday and Beltran sit, Allen Craig will play in LF and RF with Adams at 1B and Adams will play for Craig once a week at 1B.  However you slice it up, the Cards will have a power bat off the bench in every game.  Rosenthal and Boggs bounced back in game 2 as most of us knew they would.

Jake Westbrook made sure the Cards will go into the series starting Friday against the Brewers with a well-rested BP.  Westbrook pitched his first shutout since 2006, with his only blemish being 4 walks.  The Cards looked to be in a pitcher’s duel until the 5th inning, scoring 4, 4 and 2 in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings.  Jon Jay, Carpenter, Beltran and Adams all went deep, and Carpenter finished the day 4-5 as well as tied for the league lead in runs scored with 11. 

I was surprised to see Carpenter at 2B with Westbrook on the mound, however, I was happy to see it.  I don’t think Matheny should give much thought when it comes to who should be the primary 2B for the year.  Daniel Descalso’s defense doesn’t seem to be that much better than Carpenter, and certainly not enough to keep Carpenter’s bat out of the lineup.  Carpenter works the count as good as anyone and may be the best kept secret in the NL right now.

I’d like to see Shane Robinson get a few starts for Jay here and there.  I know many like Jay, but when talk of him winning the gold glove someday starts, I have to mute the TV.  Jay is a nice ballplayer on this team with the deep talent surrounding him, and he does have good numbers on offense.  However, he doesn’t work the count good enough for a lead-off man most of the time, he has a weak arm, gets bad jumps on some balls in CF and takes some awkward routes.  If Matheny is insistent about keeping bench players sharp, there’s no reason Robinson shouldn’t be included.   So far, that’s the only thing I can complain about in 2013.  I’m not bashing Jay, I just think certain fans feel he’s a little more polished than he actually is.  Being a good, complementary ballplayer is fine.

It doesn’t look like Jason Motte will be pitching in 2013.  I really wish he would go ahead and get TJS now so that he would be back sooner in 2014.  We’ve all seen that resting a torn UCL just doesn’t work.  I guess the Cards want to hope for the best, but I just don’t see rest helping.  I can’t find an instance with any other pitcher from another team resting it and it being fine either.  I hope I’m wrong.

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Cards come home 3-3

Posted on April 7, 2013 by JD

The talk has already started about a feast or famine offense in 2013.  It’s about as stupid as it was in 2012.  Stats don’t back it up.  The Cardinals, like most teams, will run into good pitching performances like Game 1 of the series in San Francisco against Barry Zito.  What seems to be ignored is the fine performance from Jake Westbrook, who walked in the only run of the game.  Twitter was fired up, as fans claimed the Cards were doomed for a long losing streak.  This may be news to some, but the Cards have struggled against soft tossing lefties for quite a few years now.  What many fans fail to realize is that other teams do as well. 

The Cards are going to make their way into the 2013 playoff race by having great SP’s that can go deep into games and keep the BP fresh.  Of course the offense is important, but I’m still having a hard time getting my head around all the negativity with insistence from a certain faction of the fans who feel that’s this teams weak spot because of a few low scoring games here and there.

The Cards had a rough start against a very good Arizona team on the road, but just bounced back to put up 9 runs in one IP against Matt Cain.  After beating Ryan Vogelsong yesterday and Cain today, I’m not sure how anyone can feel bad about this team coming home 3-3.  Except for Lance Lynn, who’s still figuring out how to find his release point consistently after shedding 40 pounds, the rest of the rotation looks solid.  If Adam Wainwright doesn’t get hit in his throwing shoulder in the first game of the year or the Cards winning a 16-inning marathon, they could easily be 4-2.

As I said previously, there’s not a lot to take away from the games this early in the season.  The sample size is too small.  However, there’s nothing that I can see that takes away my feeling that this is a playoff team and will be in the hunt with the Reds until the end.  Matt Carpenter is something to look forward to, though, as he continues to battle at the plate in deep counts.  This isn’t news however, as he’s done it throughout his pro career.  Having his bat in the line-up on a regular basis will be a big boost when David Freese returns to man 3B on a regular basis.

Shelby Miller did a couple of things that bodes well for a successful season if he keeps at it.  He kept the ball down, he didn’t shake of Molina and was able to locate his breaking balls well.  As long as the Cards stay healthy, everything will be fine.  So please, let’s all hold off on calling something a trend until at least May.  The SP is in place, the Cards have depth on the bench as well as the #1 farm system in MLB and this team is led by a steady manager in Mike Matheny.

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Cards happy to leave Arizona

Posted on April 4, 2013 by JD

The Cards dropped their opening series of the year in Arizona to the D-backs 2 games to 1.  All I can say is good riddance.  I don’t like the Cards playing in the thin air in AZ or Colorado.  I don’t think you can put too much stock in anything that happened in this series going forward.  The ball flies out of Chase field too easily, and the OF’ers have too much ground to cover.  Pitchers not accustomed to playing in CO or AZ usually have troubles.

Starting with the first game of the season, I thought it was pretty clear that Adam Wainwright was back.  Until being struck in by a ball in his throwing shoulder, he was cruising along.  He was hitting 94MPH on the radar gun with his fastball, and he had everything working except the cutter.  After that, AW wasn’t the same.  Although he claimed to be fine, his velocity immediately dropped and his control wasn’t the same.  I think AW will be back to 2009-2010 numbers when it’s all said and done.  Mistakes in the thin air will cost any pitcher.  Just ask Fernando Salas, who is the early season whipping boy.

In game 2, Jaime Garcia pitched pretty well until the 6th inning.  With 2 outs, Garcia walked the bases loaded and was bailed out when Edward Mujica came in and struck out the final batter of the 6th.  The Cards bats came alive, especially against Heath Bell.  Again though, I don’t like to put too much stock in these games, as I doubt we’ll see Pete Kozma hammering HR’s 440 feet to dead center at other ballparks.

The final and 16-inning marathon game to end the series is one of those games you say to yourself that the Cards have to win.  Last year it was the 1-run (21-26) and extra-inning games (6-12) that cost the team the division.  They’re now 0-1 in both categories to start 2013.  Lance Lynn couldn’t get the ball down.  The same can be said for Joe Kelly.  Trevor Rosenthal and Mitchell Boggs both blew 1-run saves, Rosy in the 8th and Boggs in the 12th.  The Cards led 4-1, 7-5, 8-7 and 9-8 in this game before losing 10-9 in the 16th, which was the longest game in Chase field history. 

The Cards had a tough draw to open the season on the road at Arizona and then San Francisco.  I’m happy to get these games out of the way early, but I never expected great results.  The Cards have a very tough schedule in the first month.  If they go .500 I’ll be surprised.  16 of the Cards first 22 games are on the road and the 2 home series are against the Reds and Brewers.

Thankfully, it appears Wainwright, Matt Holliday and Allen Craig are all ok.  Craig slide into the concrete wall with his left knee and Holliday was hit on the wrist with a fastball.  So, let’s just chalk this series up to the thin air for now, and see what happens from here on out.

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