Wednesday will also bring an answer as to who will be sent down from the BP.  My guess is it will be between Joe Kelly and Mitchell Boggs.  I was surprised to hear that Boggs got the call back up so soon.  His problems have followed him to Memphis, and there doesn’t appear to be a quick fix as he’s staying with his new stance on the mound.

If either Boggs or Kelly aren’t one of the choices to go down and it’s Carlos Martinez instead, I’ll be a little confused to say the least.  I know the Cards want to stretch him out as a starter, but I’m not sure how many games you can expect to be in late when your only reliable arms are Randy Choate, Seth Maness, Trevor Rosenthal and Edward Mujica.

Getting back to the starting rotation, right now all eyes are on Westbrook.  He had a setback with his elbow which prompted another cortisone injection, and that elbow may determine the arrival date of Michael Wacha.  Lyons may get away with a few good starts…hopefully anyway, but he hasn’t done anything in the minors nor does he have the pitches to stay in MLB for long as a starter.  If he can end up being a decent LOOGY down the road I’ll take it.  Cardinal Nation wants Wacha now, but we need to temper those feelings and remember that this kid was pitching for Texas A&M at this point last year.  I watched him pitch a few games in ST, and Yadier Molina made the comment that he was “ready now” at that time, but this is a dangerous situation for the Cards.

When the Cards drafted Wacha, the experts covering the draft compared him to Jon Garland.  Because of his success so far in the minors and how he impressed during ST, he’s now being talked about like the next Chris Carpenter.  It’s not fair to him or his development as a SP.  It’s a tough situation for the Cards, and a lot of factors come into play.  If the Cards really feel he is going to be the steal of the 2012 draft and a front of the rotation starter for years to come, they’ll want to have him under team control as long as possible.  Calling him up too early cuts into that time of team control, and here’s a good article from FanGraphs which explains some of that.  The Cards 28-15 record also helps the delay of Wacha’s arrival.  They have the wiggle room to take chances right now.  If the Cards were 4 or 5 games below Cincy in the standings, Wacha might be here instead of Lyons.  Rushing Wacha could be dangerous in a number of ways, and it isn’t necessary until the Westbrook situation is clearer.

The Cards are still leading all of MLB in pitching with a 3.16 ERA, led by the SP’s ERA of 2.63.  Because of how bad the BP was for the first month, the BP ERA is still only down to 4.55, which is 13^th in the NL.  The offense is coming alive, ranking 3^rd in both AVG (.266) and OBP (.329).  The Cards are doing it without the power of the HR, as their 33 HR’s rank 13^th in the NL.

Matt Carpenter is solidifying his place as the leadoff hitter for the rest of the year and in the future.  He continues to take pitches (4.04 P/PA) and set the table (.378 OBP).  Jon Jay has really turned the corner with his new stance, hitting the ball with more authority to all fields.  I’m really surprised anyone who has been doing something so long can make such as drastic change and see results as quick as Jay has.  I want to tip my cap to him, I just don’t want to hear anymore about him winning or even being in the running for a Gold Glove Award from Al Hrabosky.  Jay has a -4.1 UZR and a -17.7 UZR/150 on defense, which means his range is just awful, and 17th out of 21 qualifying MLB CF’ers.  It’s no secret why, which is because he gets awful jumps on most balls.  So please Al, just stop.  Pete Kozma keeps on getting it done in the 8 hole and Yadier Molina is tied for 5th in the league with a BA of .333.

The only change I want to see is with Daniel Descalso.  He’s just not getting it done on offense or defense.  Ryan Jackson is tearing up AAA, hitting .385.  The only reasons the Cards must have for not swapping the two are because they think Descalso will turn it around and that Jackson might not be as good getting the sporadic AB’s in his place.  Another reason could be to use Jackson as a trade chip later on, or keeping him playing on an everyday basis in case of an injury to Kozma.  It’s hard to imagine Jackson looking as lost at the plate as Descalso does, but in John Mozeliak we trust.  Even with that trust, I wouldn’t mind giving Jackson a month or two to see what he can do and letting Descalso get everyday playing time back in the minors.  I don’t see how it can hurt.

It’s important for the Cards to win the games started by Shelby Miller, Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn.  While Gast has been good, the uncertainties of him along with Lyons aren’t something to take lightly.  What will make it tough is watching the pitch counts of the big 3, but also making sure they go deep enough into games to have plenty of BP arms ready for the games started by Gast and Lyons.  There are no easy decisions for Mike Matheny to try and keep a good balance. 

Right now, Miller, Lynn and Wainwright are all in the top 22 on the PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points) list, which is not a list you want to be on.  It’s not an exact science, but I think it does make some good points about extending SP’s in this day and age where pitch count is everything.  It’s simple really….SP’s are conditioned throughout their pro career to save wear and tear on their arms and when you go above that, you’re risking injury.  The fine balance Matheny must use just became more complicated with the loss of Garcia, but extending your big 3 too many times too early is asking for trouble.  All 3 were cut short in their last start because of the high pitch counts in their previous ones.  None of them were as sharp in those last outings, and you only hope it doesn’t carry over into the next one or further.  Westbrook was also in the top 20 on that list before he went down with an injury.  Coincidence…maybe, but it’s not something Matheny should mess with.

What more can be said of Miller?  After giving up a leadoff hit to start the game, he put down 27 straight Rockies Friday night.  His 4-seam fastball seems to confuse hitters on both location and late explosiveness.  When it explodes into the spot Yadier Molina wants it, it’s not only a thing of beauty, but it leaves hitters guessing, which is odd considering Miller is a fastball/curveball pitcher mainly.  You know you’re going good when Troy Tulowitzki is baffled twice looking at strike three.  Miller is the real deal, but it will be interesting to see how teams (especially the NL Central teams) make adjustments to him over a long season.

Adam Wainwright tried to one up Miller Saturday, and a one out hit in the 8^th inning ended the chance for a no-hitter for Waino.  If the playoffs started today, Wainwright would obviously be your game one starter, followed by Miller IMO.  What I like about what Wainwright, Miller and Lance Lynn are doing is that they’re all throwing the 4-seamer up in the zone.  I never disagreed with Dave Duncan’s philosophy, especially with most of the pitchers he had that lacked pure stuff, but I like that the Cards are letting some of the power arms experiment with the power pitching up in the zone.  The groundball on the 2-seamer is still there as a first course of action, but putting hitters away with 2 strikes with a different look is something I’m enjoying.

Defensive metrics say the Cards aren’t very good as far as Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), but they’re getting to the balls they can and making the routine plays as good as anyone in baseball.  They have the second fewest errors (14) in the NL to Arizona (8).  The Cards have a UZR of -5.8, which ranks them 10^th in the NL.  To put it in perspective, the Cards had a team UZR of -34.7 in 2011, which was next to last in the NL and they won it all. Could this be something that the coaching staff realized might be the case before the season started which is why Wainwright, Miller and Lynn are going for the K more often?  That might be a stretch, but power pitching in the playoffs is something all teams long for.

I know there’s a lot of talk about the offense, but I’ll continue to say that’s the least of my worries with this team.  Even with the season long struggles of David Freese as well as the early struggles for Jon Jay and Allen Craig’s power outage, the Cards as a team are 4^th in the NL with a .263 AVG, 4^th in OBP at .326 and tied for 8th in SLG at .390.  The Cards are also keeping the K’s down on offense, only striking out 18.4% of the time, good for the 4^th lowest rate.  Jay is making harder and more consistent contact with his new stance and approach, and Freese doesn’t look as completely lost as he did 2 weeks ago.  I feel I must also say again that I hope Matheny doesn’t move Matt Carpenter out of the leadoff spot.  He works the count every AB, and his 4.13 of pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) is something no one else on the team has come close to in the past except for Matt Holliday. 

Even with the struggles of the BP until the last week or so, the Cards have the best team ERA in all of MLB at 3.03.  Where it gets almost unbelievable is the SP’s ERA of 2.25, which is almost a full run better than the Nationals SP’s who are second at 3.22. 

As the Mets come to town with their 14-20 record, all signs point to the Cards taking at least 3 of 4 in the series.  The Mets have one SP with an ERA under 4.63 in Matt Harvey (1.44), and we don’t have to face him as he pitched today.

Here are the SP matchups:

Game 1:  Jeremy Hefner (0-4, 4.63 ERA) vs. Lance Lynn (5-1, 2.72 ERA)

Game 2:  Dillon Gee (2-4, 5.55 ERA) vs. John Gast (MLB debut)

Game 3:  Shaun Marcum (0-3, 8.59 ERA) vs. Shelby Miller (5-2, 1.58 ERA)

Game 4:  Jon Niese (2-4, 5.93 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (5-2, 2.30 ERA)

I hate having to say the Cards need to win 3 of 4 in a series in May, but when you’re playing at home against SP’s with numbers like the Mets have, I feel you almost have to.  Due to the injury to Jake Westbrook, John Gast will make his first MLB start.  Gast is 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA at Memphis in 7 starts in 2013.  He’s a lefty that lives with location.  He has a fastball around 89-91, a plus change-up and a better than average curveball.  Chalk another one up to the great Cards farm system, the gift that keeps on giving.

There’s not much to say about the Mets.  David Wright (.297 AVG, .417 OBP, 5 HR’s), Lucas Duda (.368 OBP, 8 HR’s) and John Buck (10 HR’s, 29 RBI’s) are having decent years, the Cards just can’t let those guys beat them.  The Mets are lucky to be at 14-20 with the numbers they have across the board.  They’re 14^th in UZR at -9.9, 13^th in AVG at .234, 11^th in OBP at .306 and have the 4^th highest K rate as an offense at 22.1%.  They have a 4.39 ERA as a team, which is next to last (Brewers, 4.70).  In other words, they’re awful.  The only bright spot on this team aside from Harvey is closer Bobby Parnell and his 1.10 ERA and 0.73 WHIP, but he’s just 3 for 5 in save opportunities. 

The only thing that will keep the Mets out of the cellar in the NL East are the Marlins, and it will be a coin flip to determine which club, either the Marlins or the Astros will have the worst record in all of MLB in 2013, with the Mets and Cubs close behind.  The Mets have also had the luxury of playing 21 games at home (9-12) and only 13 on the road (5-8).

Like I said, winning less than 3 of 4 in this series for the Cards would be a head scratcher.  The Cards have everything going for them right now…a fresh BP, dominant SP and an offense that can put up 6 with ease when they’re in sync.  Then again, these are exactly the types of teams I think some of us worry about playing.

Seth Maness, the Cards 2012 minor league POY, also made his presence known.  Maness pitched in two games over the weekend against the Brewers and got his first win as well as the first win for a Cardinal pitcher that didn’t come from one of the SP’s.  What seemed to be a weakness a week ago is now a strength.  Many may think I’m jumping the gun with that statement, but it’s hard to imagine that opposing hitters are going to get good wood on Martinez with regularity.  Manager Mike Matheny now has innings 7-9 covered with Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal and Edward Mujica.

It will be interesting to see how Maness is used.  He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he is a control freak.  In over 250 IP in the minors, he had 18 walks.  He gets weak swings on balls on the corners, and he’ll live or die there.  So far, I like what I see.  Matheny put him in a crucial spot on Saturday and he came through unharmed.

These moves help the club in more than one way.  They also allow Joe Kelly and Fernando Salas to try and work out their issues in situations in which the Cards are way ahead or way behind.  I’m not sure how long the leash will be for either one, but they both still have options and can be shipped down for replacements if need be.  Eric Fornataro or John Gast may be next in line if they continue to struggle.  I’m not sure if Wacha will be used before September, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was brought up earlier based on needs.

After sweeping 4 games in Milwaukee, the Cards now are tied for the best record in baseball.  The SP’s continue to lead the way.  Adam Wainwright ran into a bit of trouble Saturday, but the BP and offense picked him up.  Right now, the Cards SP’s are easily alone at the top as the best starting staff in the NL.  They have the best ERA at 3.09 and have given up the fewest HR’s at 20.  The Reds have played one more game than the Cards and lead them in K’s by only 11 amongst SP’s.

If case you hadn’t noticed, Jon Jay changed his stance and swing.  After sitting out a few days last week and working with John Mabry, Bengie Molina and Carlos Beltran, Jay looks like a different hitter.  I can’t imagine doing something your entire career, making changes in a few days and then seeing results right away.  Not only is Jay driving the ball, he’s no longer pulling his front leg to first base on every swing.  The helicopter hands are gone.  Thumbs up to Jay and all those who helped with the transition.  Hopefully the results continue to be good ones.

Pete Kozma remains a steady force at shortstop.  It’s not just that he’s had only one error, it’s the range he’s showed to his right.  He may have saved the game in the first inning Saturday with the play he made with bases loaded.  Already down 2-0, the game might have gotten away if not for Kozma’s play.  It’s nice to see the Cards sticking with their 2007 1^st round draft pick.  He may never be an AS, but the Cards don’t need him to be.  Steady defense and timely hitting will be good enough.

Regardless of how Jay does with the bat, I’d like to see Matt Carpenter remain the leadoff spot.  Little Carp leads the Cards with a 4.05 P/PA and has no fear of hitting with 2 strikes unlike so many players today.

Matt Adams was set to return on Tuesday.  I haven’t heard if that’s going to be pushed back a few days due to the lack of AB’s from a snowed out game in Arkansas.  When he does return, the Cards can get back to getting Adams in there and giving Beltran, Matt Holliday and Allen Craig a few days off here and there. 

For all the talk about the Cards offense, it was only a matter of time before they broke out.  The offense is the last thing any of us should be worried about, and I don’t understand why it’s a constant source of conversation.  They haven’t all hit full stride yet, but that’s the least of my worries.

Mo took the first 30 minutes and started by giving us an update about how he felt about the Cards BP problems, certain players in the minors and things to expect with the Cardinals organization going forward.  Here are a few of the questions and answers:

One of the questions asked was more of a statement with a question mixed in about the DH.  Mo was asked if the DH was inevitable because it seems to be gaining ground on a national level.  The reply from Mo was that he doesn’t feel that it is inevitable at all.  He doesn’t see it on the horizon, and it hasn’t gained the traction among other GM’s in the NL at this point.  Mo mentioned that he’s not concerned at all about it happening anytime soon and he hopes that it doesn’t.

My question for Mo was directed at how much time he spends talking with Mike Matheny, specifically in terms of looking at the minor leagues. I asked if we could read anything into him going and watching Michael Wacha pitch in Memphis last week and the comments Matheny made about Carlos Martinez recently.  Mo responded by saying that he and Matheny get together very often, almost daily.  While impressed with Wacha and Martinez, at this point there is no hurry to rush either one, but it’s something they will revisit from time to time based on needs.  Mo emphasized the limited innings that Wacha has pitched in the minors, but did talk about how impressed the Cards were with him, as well as saying that he could see him doing what Adam Wainwright did by getting worked into the BP to start his career.  Mo is also very encouraged about Martinez and called his stuff “electric.”  Mo did seem to be fired up about the potential of both of them.

When asked about Shelby Miller and his great start, Mo literally knocked on wood (the podium) and said he has a special arm and thinks he’ll be a front of the rotation starter for years to come.

When asked about the lack of depth at shortstop and the draft, Mo said they’ll continue to draft the best player available based on their own analytics and scouts, and reminded all of us that they will jump on the opportunity to address the need long term either through the MLB draft or the international market when someone is there that makes sense.

When asked about Oscar Taveras and his comparisons to Vladimir Guerrero, Mo said that he understood the comparison, but cautioned that other than both being from the Dominican Republic and being free swingers, he thinks Taveras has better plate discipline.  Mo made sure to point out that the only players in his 18 years as a Cardinal he can compare Taveras to at this time are Albert Pujols and J.D. Drew, but made sure to point out Taveras is younger than both of them while playing in AAA.

When Mo was done, the one feeling I took away from the Q and A was that the Cardinals are not going to let a few weak links in the BP completely destroy the 2013 season.  Matheny and Mo are on the same page and not afraid or hesitant to promote within.  If the BP continues to struggle, players will be sent down and others will get a chance to prove themselves.  My next question would have been how long will they wait to get guys to get straightened out, but after seeing Seth Maness come up from AAA to replace Scrabble yesterday, I think you have your answer.  I also wanted to ask about Mitchell Boggs and why he decided to change his stance after coming off such a great year and who was behind the change, but again, time was short.

DeWitt III took the podium after Mo, and most of the questions were about the red vs. blue road hats, Ballpark Village and the future of Memphis as the Cards AAA club.  The answer to the red vs. blue hats was the Cards would wear the red hats on the road if the other team wasn’t in red, otherwise blue will be worn.  A vote was taken in the room as well, and just like in online polls, it was split.  DeWitt said the Cards plan to stay in Memphis a long time and it’s nothing to worry about.  In regards to Ballpark Village, here’s a good link to the exact words.  Daniel over at C70 will have a good post regarding the event in the next day or two as well I’m sure.

Thanks for reading….J.D.

It’s early in the year, but if the Cards go down to the wire with the Reds and come out on top, this is one of those series they can look back on as a reason why.  Losing close games was something that appeared to carry over from last year up until the first game in Washington.  After winning that game 3-2, the Cards followed it up with 2-0 and 4-2 wins in games 2 and 3. 

Wainwright has an amazing stat line of 4-1, a 1.93 ERA, 37 K’s in 37.1 IP, a 1.05 WHIP and only 1 walk. If he didn’t get hit in his throwing shoulder with a line drive in the first game of the year at Arizona, he may be 5-0.  All of his pitches are working.  His cutter is cutting in hard to LHB’s, staying out of the middle of the plate unlike in 2012, and his curveball has a nasty bite on it.  Who out there really doubted the performances being delivered from Waino?

Miller is getting it done with the 4-seam fastball.  He’s locating it very well, and Yadier Molina is calling for Miller’s breaking balls at the right time.  So far, Miller is more than living up to the hype.  Garcia did a good job yesterday with keeping the ball down until the 6^th inning.  Mike Matheny did the right thing by pulling him at a time when the game could have got out of hand.

The good news about where the Cards stand right now is that the team still isn’t firing on all cylinders on offense.  The Cards are getting timely hits, leading the league in hitting with RISP and also leading the league in RISP with 2 outs at .308, but Allen Craig, David Freese and Matt Holliday aren’t in full stride yet.  Craig has no HR’s on an OBP of .284.  Freese also has no HR’s and is hitting .211.  Holliday only has 2 HR’s in 68 AB’s, but he’s the last guy I’m worried about. 

Jon Jay is hitting .205, and I’m sure he’ll improve, but I’m still not sold on him being as a long term answer in CF.  His defense has been as bad as his offense, constantly taking bad routes to balls and runners always taking an extra base because of his weak arm.  I welcome the idea of Shane Robinson getting a good share of the playing time in CF.  The Cards are a -9 on runs saved, and Jay makes up for -6 of that.

I like Matt Carpenter being the leadoff hitter.  He works the counts with his incredible plate discipline, and is among the best in baseball in pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) at 4.06.  I think Matheny should leave him there, and I think he will.  In his new role as the 2B, Carpenter is a +1 on defense in runs saved.

It was great that the Cards didn’t have to risk using Matt Adams in Washington.  Hopefully, his oblique strain is not something serious, and we should know the extent of it by Sunday if not sooner.  Having him on the bench is going to be critical as far as resting Carlos Beltran, Holliday and Craig, as well as always having a thunderous bat late in the game regardless of who sits.

The NL Central has 4 teams playing great baseball right now, and the Cards aren’t going to catch a break with the Pirates coming to town.  Once again they have it going right to start the year and we can no longer look at them as an easy series.  The Pirates will be fired up to play the Cardinals, and Jake Westbrook will need to step up his performance in game 2 and try to reverse his trend against Pittsburgh.

Because of struggles by BP, the Cardinals have dropped a lot of close games, but it’s not all Boggs.  Trevor Rosenthal and Fernando Salas aren’t the same, but they are making progress.  I think most fans would think that Salas has an ERA higher than what it is at 4.70.  His WHIP is 1.17.  Rosenthal has a 4.22 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, and does have 13 K’s in 10.2 IP. 

The Cards are 10-8 but have only played 6 games at home.  As a worst case scenario, they’re going to come home 10-11.  I know the Nationals will be out for blood because of the way they lost the NLDS to us last year, but I don’t think the Cards get swept with Shelby Miller, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia starting the 3 games.  If Garcia has another bad road start, I think you have to give serious consideration in giving spot starts for him on the road in the future.  Whatever it is, Jaime just seems to unravel on the road, and compounds it when errors are made behind him by walking guys and leaving balls up in the zone.  Many are calling him a mental midget.  That’s a bit harsh, but something isn’t right with his road and home splits over the last couple of years.

The Cards have had a brutal schedule to open the year.  Beating up on the Cubs and Marlins isn’t something they’ve had a chance to do yet.  For those who think the Reds are just going to completely run away with the division, keep in mind the Reds just had 4 games at home with the Marlins and will now have 3 at home with the Cubs.  Also, while the Cards have been on the road for all but 6 games, the opposite is true for the Reds, who’ve had just 6 road games.

When I looked at the schedule to start the year, I thought if the Cards could come out of April with a .500 record they would be in good shape.  I still feel that way.

Getting back to the BP, the Cardinals do have options.  Matheny has to let things play out for a while still, but if the struggles continue, I think we will see some radical changes.  I don’t think Mo is going to let 2013 get away without giving a chance to Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez.  The Cards don’t want to rush either one, but Mo isn’t going to sit on his hands either.  Eric Fornataro may get a call soon, as well as Keith Butler.  I don’t think the Cards will trade for help without giving the kids a shot, that’s just not the way it’s going to work from now on.  If they do make a trade, you can be sure names like Wacha, Martinez, Kolten Wong and other high upside players won’t be involved.

Going into the Philly series and looking at facing Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Kyle Kendrick, most fans would have been happy for a series split.  Because of the way Garcia pitched on the road and because we blew a chance to take 3 of 4 when facing Kendrick in the final game leaves fans with a sour taste though.  I understand that and feel the same way.

One thing we know with this group of guys is that they’re resilient.  The offense doesn’t ever seem to let a bad game carry over to the next one. 

As long as the SP and offense continues to stay a step ahead, the BP will eventually work itself out.  Boggs needs to change his stance back to what worked in 2012 and watch a lot of video, and Rosenthal needs to locate his fastball better.  As bad as the BP has been, the Cards are still 10-8.  I’m not worried yet, but my pulse is starting to skip a beat in close games.

The other thing to note is that Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and David Freese haven’t caught fire yet.  The Cardinals are scoring runs by leading the league with RISP.  I expect these things to equal out, so again, no worries.  Stay calm Cardinal Nation, this is a good to potentially great team going through a rough patch in a few areas.

Help from the minors is not looking as good as it was when the season started.  Michael Wacha is having a hard time adjusting in AAA, but it’s still early.  Eduardo Sanchez, who looked great in ST and was off to a great start at Memphis, was put on the DL yesterday with a forearm strain.  The other options are Sam Freeman, Victor Marte and Maikel Cleto, and none of them are doing well in Memphis either.

I’m not sure what Matheny is going to do in the next save situation, but I’m not sure that pulling Boggs from the closers role is the right thing to do right now.  Rosenthal is having some control problems and Edward Mujica seems to be a better fit in the 7^th or 8^th inning. If you throw Mujica into the fire and he doesn’t get it done, you have your main 3 guys with confidence issues.   Joe Kelly has been hit hard but hasn’t pitched much.  Fernando Salas just isn’t the same as he was in 2011, but again, it’s still early.

What’s really going to be difficult is when the Cards SP’s start having trouble.  So far, they’re leading MLB in ERA.  The Cards BP is last in ERA.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals kicked the tires on K-Rod at some point soon if the struggles continue, as he’s still unsigned.  Right now though, I think you have to let it play out until the end of April to see how both Boggs and Rosenthal respond.

After a 1-3 start, the Cards have taken 2 of 3 in each series.  Most of the time most fans would be happy with that, but because of the way the Cards lost their last 2 games I understand the frustration.  The Reds have dropped 5 in a row and Johnny Cueto is heading to the DL with a lat strain.  The Cards beat Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse in the Brewers series.  There’s a lot to look forward to with this team, but most don’t want to hear about that right now.

Another option that might be on the horizon is Keith Butler.  He was just promoted from AA to AAA yesterday after Sanchez went on the DL.

The bottom line for me is I think you let it play out over at least the 10 game road trip the Cards start tonight and see what happens.  We all know that Boggs and Rosenthal have great stuff.  Right now, Rosenthal is just having trouble locating his fastball, and Boggs hasn’t caught a couple of key breaks.  He hasn’t helped himself after a couple of junk hits, but I still think he’s the best option until Rosenthal gains control.  You can call me an apologist if you want, but I’m not sure pulling the plug and switching roles 12 games in is the right thing to do.

Overall, I thought the Cards did a great job with the ceremonies and had a very nice tribute to Stan Musial.  It wasn’t the same without Stan, and it must have been an emotional roller coaster for players and the fans.  There were some things that caught my attention that are worth noting.  Chris Carpenter removed his hat before shaking the hands of the HOF’ers and Lance Lynn must have been watching, because as the next in line he did as well.  It seemed like Red was telling some pretty good jokes to each passing veteran.  The Dalmatian that was on the wagon being pulled by the Clydesdales seemed as nervous as some of the players, as the guy sitting next to him had to keep putting his hand on his rear to try and get him to sit still.  I know my dog would like to think that 50,000 people were cheering for him.

I really hope Jaime Garcia’s shoulder holds up in 2013 as the movement on his pitches was incredible.  His 10 K’s in 6.2 IP was a good sign.  Except for walking the pitcher with 2 outs and nobody on in the 3^rd inning, he seemed to not have any mental hiccups.  Trevor Rosenthal gave up a run and gave up another hold, but I don’t think there’s any reason to worry.  Again, let’s wait until the month is over before we start saying what a guy can or can’t do.  Remember that he’s only 22.  Boggs just had one of those games where nothing went right.  The only thing I do question at this point and time is why Boggs and the Cards felt the need to change the way he stands on the mound.  It’s hard to argue with the results from last year.  If it ain’t broke, you know. 

Like I said it was just a weird game.  When someone like Shin-Soo Choo drops the two fly balls like he did, you just think to yourself it’s going to be one of those great days for the Cards, and then the 9^th inning happens.  Anyway, I’m not worried about Boggs or Rosenthal.

On to game 2 of the series, and Lynn just looked great.  His fastball command and velocity was back as he had his way with the Reds, also striking out 10.  The Cardinals were shut down through the first 5 inning against Bronson Arroyo, and then Matt Adams went deep with a 2-run HR hitting for Lynn.  The Cards have a really good problem with Adams on the bench.  With the rest that Mike Matheny plans on giving Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday, Adams should see about 3 starts every 7 games.  When Holliday and Beltran sit, Allen Craig will play in LF and RF with Adams at 1B and Adams will play for Craig once a week at 1B.  However you slice it up, the Cards will have a power bat off the bench in every game.  Rosenthal and Boggs bounced back in game 2 as most of us knew they would.

Jake Westbrook made sure the Cards will go into the series starting Friday against the Brewers with a well-rested BP.  Westbrook pitched his first shutout since 2006, with his only blemish being 4 walks.  The Cards looked to be in a pitcher’s duel until the 5^th inning, scoring 4, 4 and 2 in the 5^th, 6^th and 7^th innings.  Jon Jay, Carpenter, Beltran and Adams all went deep, and Carpenter finished the day 4-5 as well as tied for the league lead in runs scored with 11. 

I was surprised to see Carpenter at 2B with Westbrook on the mound, however, I was happy to see it.  I don’t think Matheny should give much thought when it comes to who should be the primary 2B for the year.  Daniel Descalso’s defense doesn’t seem to be that much better than Carpenter, and certainly not enough to keep Carpenter’s bat out of the lineup.  Carpenter works the count as good as anyone and may be the best kept secret in the NL right now.

I’d like to see Shane Robinson get a few starts for Jay here and there.  I know many like Jay, but when talk of him winning the gold glove someday starts, I have to mute the TV.  Jay is a nice ballplayer on this team with the deep talent surrounding him, and he does have good numbers on offense.  However, he doesn’t work the count good enough for a lead-off man most of the time, he has a weak arm, gets bad jumps on some balls in CF and takes some awkward routes.  If Matheny is insistent about keeping bench players sharp, there’s no reason Robinson shouldn’t be included.   So far, that’s the only thing I can complain about in 2013.  I’m not bashing Jay, I just think certain fans feel he’s a little more polished than he actually is.  Being a good, complementary ballplayer is fine.

It doesn’t look like Jason Motte will be pitching in 2013.  I really wish he would go ahead and get TJS now so that he would be back sooner in 2014.  We’ve all seen that resting a torn UCL just doesn’t work.  I guess the Cards want to hope for the best, but I just don’t see rest helping.  I can’t find an instance with any other pitcher from another team resting it and it being fine either.  I hope I’m wrong.

The Cards are going to make their way into the 2013 playoff race by having great SP’s that can go deep into games and keep the BP fresh.  Of course the offense is important, but I’m still having a hard time getting my head around all the negativity with insistence from a certain faction of the fans who feel that’s this teams weak spot because of a few low scoring games here and there.

The Cards had a rough start against a very good Arizona team on the road, but just bounced back to put up 9 runs in one IP against Matt Cain.  After beating Ryan Vogelsong yesterday and Cain today, I’m not sure how anyone can feel bad about this team coming home 3-3.  Except for Lance Lynn, who’s still figuring out how to find his release point consistently after shedding 40 pounds, the rest of the rotation looks solid.  If Adam Wainwright doesn’t get hit in his throwing shoulder in the first game of the year or the Cards winning a 16-inning marathon, they could easily be 4-2.

As I said previously, there’s not a lot to take away from the games this early in the season.  The sample size is too small.  However, there’s nothing that I can see that takes away my feeling that this is a playoff team and will be in the hunt with the Reds until the end.  Matt Carpenter is something to look forward to, though, as he continues to battle at the plate in deep counts.  This isn’t news however, as he’s done it throughout his pro career.  Having his bat in the line-up on a regular basis will be a big boost when David Freese returns to man 3B on a regular basis.

Shelby Miller did a couple of things that bodes well for a successful season if he keeps at it.  He kept the ball down, he didn’t shake of Molina and was able to locate his breaking balls well.  As long as the Cards stay healthy, everything will be fine.  So please, let’s all hold off on calling something a trend until at least May.  The SP is in place, the Cards have depth on the bench as well as the #1 farm system in MLB and this team is led by a steady manager in Mike Matheny.

Starting with the first game of the season, I thought it was pretty clear that Adam Wainwright was back.  Until being struck in by a ball in his throwing shoulder, he was cruising along.  He was hitting 94MPH on the radar gun with his fastball, and he had everything working except the cutter.  After that, AW wasn’t the same.  Although he claimed to be fine, his velocity immediately dropped and his control wasn’t the same.  I think AW will be back to 2009-2010 numbers when it’s all said and done.  Mistakes in the thin air will cost any pitcher.  Just ask Fernando Salas, who is the early season whipping boy.

In game 2, Jaime Garcia pitched pretty well until the 6^th inning.  With 2 outs, Garcia walked the bases loaded and was bailed out when Edward Mujica came in and struck out the final batter of the 6^th.  The Cards bats came alive, especially against Heath Bell.  Again though, I don’t like to put too much stock in these games, as I doubt we’ll see Pete Kozma hammering HR’s 440 feet to dead center at other ballparks.

The final and 16-inning marathon game to end the series is one of those games you say to yourself that the Cards have to win.  Last year it was the 1-run (21-26) and extra-inning games (6-12) that cost the team the division.  They’re now 0-1 in both categories to start 2013.  Lance Lynn couldn’t get the ball down.  The same can be said for Joe Kelly.  Trevor Rosenthal and Mitchell Boggs both blew 1-run saves, Rosy in the 8^th and Boggs in the 12^th.  The Cards led 4-1, 7-5, 8-7 and 9-8 in this game before losing 10-9 in the 16^th, which was the longest game in Chase field history. 

The Cards had a tough draw to open the season on the road at Arizona and then San Francisco.  I’m happy to get these games out of the way early, but I never expected great results.  The Cards have a very tough schedule in the first month.  If they go .500 I’ll be surprised.  16 of the Cards first 22 games are on the road and the 2 home series are against the Reds and Brewers.

Thankfully, it appears Wainwright, Matt Holliday and Allen Craig are all ok.  Craig slide into the concrete wall with his left knee and Holliday was hit on the wrist with a fastball.  So, let’s just chalk this series up to the thin air for now, and see what happens from here on out.