It appears Jim Edmonds will have a shot to hit his 400th HR and get his 2000th base hit in a St. Louis Cardinals uniform. The Cardinals signed Edmonds to a minor league contract today, with an invite to spring training. The only player that seems to lose out here is either Allen Craig or Jon Jay. I actually think this is a good move for the Cardinals, as it does a couple of things. One, Colby Rasmus will probably has Edmonds around for most of the year in his ear, and one of Edmonds great strengths was getting a good jump and read on a fly ball. Number 2, it gives the Cardinals a left handed power threat off of the bench.
This move is coming shortly after Edmonds recently talked about retirement. I think if Edmonds can get to 400 and 2000, it will cement him in Cooperstown. With the way the writers are starting to wise up to defensive stats and overall measurements such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), it’s clear that Edmonds is one of the top 10 overall centerfielders of all-time. I can see scenarios in which either Craig or Jay are sent to Memphis, with a lot of it depending on how serious Tony LaRussa is about Tyler Greene receiving AB’s in CF, and whether the need is greater for a defensive replacement in RF for Jay or a RH power bat off the bench in Craig. A lot of it will probably depend on how well Craig does at taking ground balls at 3B as well. Edmonds still has some pop left, hitting 11 HR’s last year between Milwaukee and Cincinnati in 246 AB’s.
As many of you know by now, Edmonds is my favorite all-time Cardinal. I like this move, and I don’t think it’s in any way a negative for the Cardinals. If Edmonds is in shape and can still provide power, his help is much needed. How many games Edmonds puts the Cards over the top in 2011 is something I hope we get a chance to see, and I hope to be there to celebrate the day he hits his 400th HR.
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I must say JD, your writings lately have been dead on for the most part, and impressive. I have to say I think you are way off on this one. I agree with you in the sense that nothing BAD can come of this signing. Sure, Craig or Jay may play less, but their time is coming — we all know that. So, having Edmonds around does in fact do exactly what you said it will do — it provides us with a power bat off the bench and a nice late innings defensive replacement. This is where you and I part…
I would be shocked if Edmonds lasts the full season. I REALLY hope he does. I love the guy, and “the catch” he made against the Astros in game 7 of NLCS a few years back stands as one of my five favorite Cardinals moments. All of that being said, the Cardinals have a long history of going back and signing former Cardinals who are long past their primes who were fan favorites when they used to wear the birds on the bat. The only thing these signings tend to have in common with one another is that the warm feelings that come with bringing in one of these old heroes tend to fade pretty quickly when we realize they can’t play well enough consistently enough to justify Tony continuing to put them out there. Whether we are talking about someone like Fernando Vina (who we elected NOT to sign because we knew he couldn’t play anymore), Andy Van Slyke or Vince Coleman (guys we signed to minor leagues deals who didn’t last until the end of Spring Training), or even guys like Ray Lankford (who lasted half a season before he was sent packing), the one thing they all have in common is that they had so little to offer the club at the end that we simply couldn’t keep them around. About the only guy I can think of off the top of my head that this really worked out for was my personal all-time favorite Cardinal, Willie McGee. While McGee was clearly far past his prime during those last few seasons with the Cardinals, he was at least useful enough to help out a little. Edmonds may be the same, but my best guess is that he gets frustrated by how little Tony plays him (probably because he’s hitting .211 or something) and he ends up being released mid-season after a couple months of pissing and moaning to the media about how he’s being disrespected. He’ll probably have a couple of great games, and start fast early in the year, but in the end, I just can’t see him sticking much past the all-star break.
I mean no disrespect, but the suggestion that Edmonds getting to 2000 hits and 400 home runs, when combined with his defensive prowess — the suggestion that this somehow makes him a lock for Cooperstown is off-the-charts crazy. Edmonds has had a fine career, and no doubt was one of the stars of this generation. He had some strong seasons at the plate, but in truth only a handful that were really all-star offensive seasons. He won a bunch of gold gloves and was one of the top defensive outfielders of the generation. These things being said, he’ll go down as a really, really good player — but not a great one. I would be stunned if he got 20% of the HOF vote — and he certainly won’t ever get to the 75% threshold. I know you love him JD, but I just think you are way off on this one!
Jordan,
Go to Baseball-Reference.com and look at the top 200 players over a career using the stat WAR. New sabermetrics like these take a players total contributions to a team, such as OBP, OPS, walks, defense and many others and shows their true value. After looking at these, and seeing that the top 100 on the list are mainly all HOF’ers, it’s hard to discount not Edmonds being one of them. Here’s the link:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml
Now, do you agree, stats wise, that this list makes sense? Also, you have to be relevant in the argue for Edmonds. You have to compare him against all other CF’ers to play the game and ask how he compares to them. In that regard, it’s a no brainer. His stats are about equal with Duke Snider, and ahead of Kirby Puckett and a few others that are in the Hall. Just my opinion, thanks for yours. I like using these new stats, they place a heavy emphasis on defense, and while most fans don’t care about anything other than the longball, Edmonds was clearly a great all around player over an extended time period.
JD,
I think the new stats you refer to so often on here are fascinating stats. I really do. I would agree with you that they are a relatively solid way to measure a player’s all around level of contribution to a team’s success. On those areas, we are in total agreement.
The problem, however with your Hall of Fame argument is that while a handful of sportswriters look at stuff like that, the vast majority of them view stats like that as a way for agents to get larger contracts for their players. It’s like the “quality start” — which is an agent-invented stat designed to make slightly above average starters appear to be superstars when in fact they aren’t.
The argument here really isn’t whether or not either one of us thinks Edmonds is a Hall of Famer. You clearly think he is — I clearly don’t. But neither of our personal opinions matter. What does matter is historically what is it that gets 75% of sportswriters to vote for a particular player. That’s a REALLY high percentage. It’s hard to get 75% of people to agree that we really need oxygen to survive, much less to agree that a particular player deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.
When you look at the history of Hall of Fame voting, you see that unless you meet the historical “magic numbers” statistically (3000 hits, 500 home runs, or 300 wins), you have to have some REALLY friggin’ special stuff going on in some other area. That’s why incredibly deserving guys like Bert Blyleven, truly one of the most consistent frontline pitchers of his generation, had such an difficult time getting in. If Blyleven hadn’t spent the bulk of his career playing for teams that lost 100 games a year, he would’ve won 375 games and been a no brainer. But he just got in on the umpteenth attempt because the voters are incredibly hesitant to let in players who don’t meet the aforementioned numbers. 2000 hits and 400 home runs, especially in the steroid era of baseball, signify a pretty solid career. Add to that the extraordinary defensive skills Edmonds had for so many seasons, it probably becomes a really, really good career.
Unfortunately for Edmonds, the voters don’t put people in Cooperstown who were really, really good. They put people there who everyone agrees were the best of the best of their generations. I think that everyone would agree that when Edmonds was healthy and fit, he was one of the best players around — but he spent too much time injured, and ultimately was far too streaky at the plate to ever be considered one of the greats to ever play the game. There may be some statistic out there that indicates he’s one of the best players ever — but my argument is that the Hall of Fame voters aren’t going to care nearly enough about WAR to get anywhere close to 75% yes votes. He’ll get some votes — he’ll probably even get enough to stay on the ballot for a few years — but 75%? Zero chance. Maybe one fourth of that, and even that is unlikely.
Jordan,
For one more thought, I think Jim Rice getting in opened the door up for Edmonds. He was a bad defensive LF, and got in because of his offense. He has about 500 more hits than Edmonds, but only about 140 more times on base. If Edmonds can close that gap with one more year of walks and hits, it gives him another reference point. Like I said, Duke Snider is one of greatest CF’ers of all time, and he and Edmonds are pretty close in all numbers, with Edmonds a much better defender. Thanks for you points, and I think you’re right with a lot of the writers. Hopefully 6 years from now, a lot of them will have their heads out of their ass and realize Edmonds was the best CF in baseball for a 7 year stretch.
JD,
I think Jim Rice getting in did help some other guys have a shot. I would agree with you there. On the flipside, Rice was clearly a marginal Hall of Famer (as evidenced by the multitude of times he DIDN’T get voted in), and even with a productive season, the best Edmonds could hope for would be to statistically “close the gap” a bit as you say. Edmonds getting 100 hits this season seems like a HUGE stretch to me, but even if he gets that many, he’s still 400 hits shy of a guy who just barely squeezed in.
I like your mention of Duke Snider. While I am not a Duke Snider historian, I do often hear in casual conversation references to “if there’s one guy in the pro baseball Hall of Fame who shouldn’t be — it’s Duke Snider.” I don’t know enough to say that I agree or disagree with the statement. I only mention it because my guess is that if you are paralleling the careers of Edmonds and Snider, I’m not sure that helps Edmonds case all that much. I do know I have brought up the “Edmonds in the Hall of Fame” topic with a few of my baseball talking friends, and the response has been unanimous: “We love Jimmy. He was a fun player to watch. He’ll be lucky to get 5% of the Hall of Fame vote though. He just wasn’t good enough for long enough.”
It’s been a fun topic to discuss though. Let’s do this some more!
Thanks brother,
Jordan