How the 2011 projected starting rotations of the St. Louis Cardinals stacks up against the Brewers and Reds

Below is the table comparing the Cardinals pitching staff against the Brewers and Reds projected starting rotations.  With the Reds, I listed 6 starters.  It seems that one of Bailey, Leake, or Wood will be left off to start the season, but I’m not sure which one it will be.  The Cincinnati Reds depth chart from MLB.com has 6 starters listed, #5 being Travis Wood, #6 being Mike Leake.  I actually think Bailey might be the odd man out.

As you can see, if everyone has an average year, the Cardinals are in pretty good shape.  We all know the health of Lohse is key.  I’m a little worried about Carpenter and his velocity being down a bit, and also the unknown with why Wainwright was shut down at the end of 2010.  Garcia’s ERA will probably go up quite a bit, but I don’t see a huge sophomore slump.

The Brewers have the more dominant staff in terms of strikeouts per 9 innings.  Like I’ve said with the Brewers, I think their acquisition of Shaun Marcum has been overshadowed by Zack Greinke.  I think Marcum has the chance to be the best pitcher on the Brewers staff.

Finally, I went ahead and put career W-L records for each pitcher.  Many will discard them as not as important as years past, but I think there’s still quite a bit of relevance.  Using them on their own doesn’t do much, but using them with the other stats given will give us a better understanding of a pitcher’s ability.  As you can see, the Cardinals have the most experienced staff of the three.  I like the way we match up from top to bottom.

PitcherCareer W-LCareer ERACareer FIPWAR/200Career WHIPCareer SO/9
Wainwright
STL-RHP
66-352.973.364.161.207.5
Carpenter
STL-RHP
133-833.803.892.911.286.8
Westbrook
STL-RHP
73-754.294.172.011.375.0
Garcia
STL-LHP
14-92.963.742.891.327.0
Lohse
STL-RHP
88-984.794.530.851.435.6
Greinke
MIL-RHP
60-673.823.594.111.267.6
Gallardo
MIL-RHP
36-243.673.513.081.329.4
Marcum
MIL-RHP
37-253.854.463.341.237.3
Wolf
MIL-LHP
114-974.134.341.841.327.3
Narveson
MIL-LHP
14-94.744.210.261.357.8
Cueto
CIN-RHP
32-324.274.511.501.347.3
Volquez
CIN-RHP
28-224.364.302.161.478.7
Arroyo
CIN-RHP
103-934.194.462.391.316.0
Bailey
CIN-RHP
16-165.094.48-0.71.526.9
Wood
CIN-LHP
5-43.513.422.331.087.5
Leake
CIN-RHP
8-44.234.68-0.61.495.9
Zambrano116-743.503.933.701.307.7
Dempster102-1024.374.311.431.457.7
Garza42-443.974.262.701.317.1
Wells20-243.653.923.451.336.1
Silva70-704.684.491.111.394.0
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2 Responses to How the 2011 projected starting rotations of the St. Louis Cardinals stacks up against the Brewers and Reds

  1. jstone says:

    JD,
    I like this piece. It’s got great info, and your points are well made. I would contend that your basic point — that the Cardinals are clear favorites to win the division on paper — is spot on. Of course the same could’ve been said last year. We have to tip our caps to the Reds, who slightly outplayed their ability levels — and of course we have to be critical of the Cardinals, who underplayed their ability levels to an epic degree — choking if you will.

    Your concerns on Carp are legit. Even though he is still obviously a frontline pitcher, I think we’ve been able to gather enough data the last couple of years (including two years ago when he was a Cy Young contender) to conclude that he’s probably on the front end of the inevitable decline.

    All of that being said, if we play the way we are capable of playing, we should be able to win the Central by six or eight games over the Reds and by ten or twelve games over the Brewers.

  2. gliptitude says:

    Reds fan here. While I generally agree with jstone that in 2010 the Reds over-performed and Cards underperformed, I don’t think it’s that clear cut with the starting pitching. The Reds pitchers certainly exceeded expectations at times, but they also suffered through the final attempts at reviving Aaron Harang, significant injury to the steadily improving Homer Bailey and a huge late season drop-off in the performance of 2010′s most over-performing Red’s pitcher, Mike Leake. I’ve had a hard time gauging Card fans’ opinions about their pitchers because Jaime Garcia seemed very consistent to me and I remember Brad Penny being very successful early in the year, yet both seemed to be regarded with skepticism by fans. At any rate I expect these two teams’ slightly altered rotations to perform similarly to last year, Cincinnati having good depth and St. Louis having dominant front end.

    The young Homer Bailey is already out of options, and not well suited to the bullpen. So I think it’s unlikely he will be eliminated from the Reds rotation, as long as he looks ok in spring training.

    With the Brewers fundamental improvements to the formerly weakest part of their team, and with the Cubs possible improvement, I’m expecting the Reds to see a little bit less Wainwright/Carpenter, and hoping that depth provides a bigger advantage to the Reds in this rivalry next year.

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