FIP and the 2010 Cy Young Award Winner

I’m curious to see how Keith Law and Will Carroll vote this year on the NL Cy Young Award.  I’m not going to call them out here; I’m just going to point to the way they voted in 2009. 

Carroll left Carpenter off of his ballot.  His final ballot went:

  1. Adam Wainwright
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Dan Haren

Here is Keith Law’s top 3 on his final ballot:

  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Javier Vasquez
  3. Adam Wainwright

Wow is all I can say.  Every writer in the world besides these two knew that Carpenter should at least be part of the top 3.  He led the league in ERA with a 2.24, had a 1.01 WHIP and was 17-4.  I really have a problem with Keith Law’s ballot the most.  Anyway, Law has made numerous comments about how important FIP is.  I think FIP is an important statistic as well, but you can’t use it and pick and choose other stats to throw out that use common sense.  My main problem with FIP is that it takes away from the Dave Duncan philosophy.  We all know Carpenter, Wainwright and most other Cardinal pitchers try to get hitters to hit a bad ball and ground out as fast as possible, reserving their pitch counts.

Even though I don’t think it’s anywhere close to WAR as a good measurement of a player, I do see the value in FIP, I just think it’s a little flawed, and lacks a bit of common sense.  With that said, the real is question is if FIP will tip the scale this year.  If Law is using the same logic as last year, then Adam Wainwright should win the award this year.  I’ve heard the award talked about on sports radio, ESPN and MLB like it’s already a done deal.  I don’t understand that at all.  Here are the stats comparing Wainwright and Halladay this year against a few other top pitchers.

It doesn’t look like a one horse race to me.  If you’re looking at the stats, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be as close as last year. 

Adam Wainwright2332.421.052132.86
Roy Halladay2502.441.042193.01
Ubaldo Jimenez221.22.881.152143.10
Tim Hudson228.22.831.151394.09
Josh Johnson183.22.301.101862.41

While stats are all that mattered last year, I guarantee you that you will hear someone like Law justify his Halladay vote this year by throwing out something that can’t be easily measured to justify his vote.  When you hear the first “Halladay meant more to the Phillies than any pitcher meant to any other team in baseball”, send me a link.  The same can be said when someone points out that the Cardinals didn’t make the playoffs.  The Giants didn’t make it last year, and it didn’t seem to matter for the Cy. 

I have a feeling that Roy Halladay is going to win unanimously this year.  I think he’s going to win for the same reason I feel like Jason Heyward is going to win the Rookie of the Year award.  What I mean by that is I believe that Jason Heyward and Roy Halladay had a big advantage before the season started.  There were serious talks of Roy Halladay winning 30 games on the MLB network and ESPN, and if Jason Heyward wasn’t anointed the ROY award before the season began, he was after he hit a HR in his first at bat of the year.  I don’t feel like I’m a homer when I say Jaime Garcia deserves serious consideration for the award.  Hell, he was only behind Josh Johnson, Wainwright and Halladay in ERA in the NL.  That’s another story for after the award is given to Heyward though.

I can’t argue with Roy Halladay winning the award, but the writers are making him out to be something he was not, and that’s head and tails above every other pitcher in the National League.

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  1. Pingback: Adam Wainwright had a better year than being credited for | Bleed Cardinal Red With Me--For St. Louis Cardinals Fans

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