Tyler Lyons, Michael Wacha and Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP)

Posted on May 20, 2013 by JD

Originally thought of as just a quick fix for the injured Jake Westbrook, John Gast may end up being in the Cards rotation for quite a while with the recent news of Jaime Garcia.  I’m surprised Garcia lasted as long as he did with a partial tear of the labrum in his shoulder.  I understand wanting to try and avoid surgery and make it a last option, but I’m expecting Dr. James Andrews to give Garcia the news that he needs to go under the knife.  Tyler Lyons will step in for Garcia on Wednesday in San Diego, but I’m not sure he’ll be a long term answer. 

Wednesday will also bring an answer as to who will be sent down from the BP.  My guess is it will be between Joe Kelly and Mitchell Boggs.  I was surprised to hear that Boggs got the call back up so soon.  His problems have followed him to Memphis, and there doesn’t appear to be a quick fix as he’s staying with his new stance on the mound.

If either Boggs or Kelly aren’t one of the choices to go down and it’s Carlos Martinez instead, I’ll be a little confused to say the least.  I know the Cards want to stretch him out as a starter, but I’m not sure how many games you can expect to be in late when your only reliable arms are Randy Choate, Seth Maness, Trevor Rosenthal and Edward Mujica.

Getting back to the starting rotation, right now all eyes are on Westbrook.  He had a setback with his elbow which prompted another cortisone injection, and that elbow may determine the arrival date of Michael Wacha.  Lyons may get away with a few good starts…hopefully anyway, but he hasn’t done anything in the minors nor does he have the pitches to stay in MLB for long as a starter.  If he can end up being a decent LOOGY down the road I’ll take it.  Cardinal Nation wants Wacha now, but we need to temper those feelings and remember that this kid was pitching for Texas A&M at this point last year.  I watched him pitch a few games in ST, and Yadier Molina made the comment that he was “ready now” at that time, but this is a dangerous situation for the Cards.

When the Cards drafted Wacha, the experts covering the draft compared him to Jon Garland.  Because of his success so far in the minors and how he impressed during ST, he’s now being talked about like the next Chris Carpenter.  It’s not fair to him or his development as a SP.  It’s a tough situation for the Cards, and a lot of factors come into play.  If the Cards really feel he is going to be the steal of the 2012 draft and a front of the rotation starter for years to come, they’ll want to have him under team control as long as possible.  Calling him up too early cuts into that time of team control, and here’s a good article from FanGraphs which explains some of that.  The Cards 28-15 record also helps the delay of Wacha’s arrival.  They have the wiggle room to take chances right now.  If the Cards were 4 or 5 games below Cincy in the standings, Wacha might be here instead of Lyons.  Rushing Wacha could be dangerous in a number of ways, and it isn’t necessary until the Westbrook situation is clearer.

The Cards are still leading all of MLB in pitching with a 3.16 ERA, led by the SP’s ERA of 2.63.  Because of how bad the BP was for the first month, the BP ERA is still only down to 4.55, which is 13th in the NL.  The offense is coming alive, ranking 3rd in both AVG (.266) and OBP (.329).  The Cards are doing it without the power of the HR, as their 33 HR’s rank 13th in the NL.

Matt Carpenter is solidifying his place as the leadoff hitter for the rest of the year and in the future.  He continues to take pitches (4.04 P/PA) and set the table (.378 OBP).  Jon Jay has really turned the corner with his new stance, hitting the ball with more authority to all fields.  I’m really surprised anyone who has been doing something so long can make such as drastic change and see results as quick as Jay has.  I want to tip my cap to him, I just don’t want to hear anymore about him winning or even being in the running for a Gold Glove Award from Al Hrabosky.  Jay has a -4.1 UZR and a -17.7 UZR/150 on defense, which means his range is just awful, and 17th out of 21 qualifying MLB CF’ers.  It’s no secret why, which is because he gets awful jumps on most balls.  So please Al, just stop.  Pete Kozma keeps on getting it done in the 8 hole and Yadier Molina is tied for 5th in the league with a BA of .333.

The only change I want to see is with Daniel Descalso.  He’s just not getting it done on offense or defense.  Ryan Jackson is tearing up AAA, hitting .385.  The only reasons the Cards must have for not swapping the two are because they think Descalso will turn it around and that Jackson might not be as good getting the sporadic AB’s in his place.  Another reason could be to use Jackson as a trade chip later on, or keeping him playing on an everyday basis in case of an injury to Kozma.  It’s hard to imagine Jackson looking as lost at the plate as Descalso does, but in John Mozeliak we trust.  Even with that trust, I wouldn’t mind giving Jackson a month or two to see what he can do and letting Descalso get everyday playing time back in the minors.  I don’t see how it can hurt.

It’s important for the Cards to win the games started by Shelby Miller, Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn.  While Gast has been good, the uncertainties of him along with Lyons aren’t something to take lightly.  What will make it tough is watching the pitch counts of the big 3, but also making sure they go deep enough into games to have plenty of BP arms ready for the games started by Gast and Lyons.  There are no easy decisions for Mike Matheny to try and keep a good balance. 

Right now, Miller, Lynn and Wainwright are all in the top 22 on the PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points) list, which is not a list you want to be on.  It’s not an exact science, but I think it does make some good points about extending SP’s in this day and age where pitch count is everything.  It’s simple really….SP’s are conditioned throughout their pro career to save wear and tear on their arms and when you go above that, you’re risking injury.  The fine balance Matheny must use just became more complicated with the loss of Garcia, but extending your big 3 too many times too early is asking for trouble.  All 3 were cut short in their last start because of the high pitch counts in their previous ones.  None of them were as sharp in those last outings, and you only hope it doesn’t carry over into the next one or further.  Westbrook was also in the top 20 on that list before he went down with an injury.  Coincidence…maybe, but it’s not something Matheny should mess with.

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Looking back and then ahead to the Mets series

Posted on May 12, 2013 by JD

The Cardinals were due for a bad game.  It happens.  Jaime Garcia pitched like he was on the road today, getting in trouble with 2 outs and no one on base.  Other than that, there’s not much to complain about except for the use of Carlos Martinez in a game when you’re down 5-0.  If the Cards have a couple of close ones the next few games where Martinez is needed, Mike Matheny might regret that decision.  I say this because of the Cards talking about limiting the action Martinez sees out of the BP early on until he gets used to it.  I know Matheny wants to get the BP some work because of the lack of opportunities this week from the two off days the Cards had this week as well as the two complete games by Shelby Miller and Adam Wainwright.  However, today’s game had Joe Kelly and Fernando Salas only written all over it.  I would have liked to have seen Kelly stretched out a bit to try and get back on track instead of the use of Martinez.  Anyway, before looking ahead, let’s look back a bit.

What more can be said of Miller?  After giving up a leadoff hit to start the game, he put down 27 straight Rockies Friday night.  His 4-seam fastball seems to confuse hitters on both location and late explosiveness.  When it explodes into the spot Yadier Molina wants it, it’s not only a thing of beauty, but it leaves hitters guessing, which is odd considering Miller is a fastball/curveball pitcher mainly.  You know you’re going good when Troy Tulowitzki is baffled twice looking at strike three.  Miller is the real deal, but it will be interesting to see how teams (especially the NL Central teams) make adjustments to him over a long season.

Adam Wainwright tried to one up Miller Saturday, and a one out hit in the 8th inning ended the chance for a no-hitter for Waino.  If the playoffs started today, Wainwright would obviously be your game one starter, followed by Miller IMO.  What I like about what Wainwright, Miller and Lance Lynn are doing is that they’re all throwing the 4-seamer up in the zone.  I never disagreed with Dave Duncan’s philosophy, especially with most of the pitchers he had that lacked pure stuff, but I like that the Cards are letting some of the power arms experiment with the power pitching up in the zone.  The groundball on the 2-seamer is still there as a first course of action, but putting hitters away with 2 strikes with a different look is something I’m enjoying.

Defensive metrics say the Cards aren’t very good as far as Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), but they’re getting to the balls they can and making the routine plays as good as anyone in baseball.  They have the second fewest errors (14) in the NL to Arizona (8).  The Cards have a UZR of -5.8, which ranks them 10th in the NL.  To put it in perspective, the Cards had a team UZR of -34.7 in 2011, which was next to last in the NL and they won it all. Could this be something that the coaching staff realized might be the case before the season started which is why Wainwright, Miller and Lynn are going for the K more often?  That might be a stretch, but power pitching in the playoffs is something all teams long for.

I know there’s a lot of talk about the offense, but I’ll continue to say that’s the least of my worries with this team.  Even with the season long struggles of David Freese as well as the early struggles for Jon Jay and Allen Craig’s power outage, the Cards as a team are 4th in the NL with a .263 AVG, 4th in OBP at .326 and tied for 8th in SLG at .390.  The Cards are also keeping the K’s down on offense, only striking out 18.4% of the time, good for the 4th lowest rate.  Jay is making harder and more consistent contact with his new stance and approach, and Freese doesn’t look as completely lost as he did 2 weeks ago.  I feel I must also say again that I hope Matheny doesn’t move Matt Carpenter out of the leadoff spot.  He works the count every AB, and his 4.13 of pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) is something no one else on the team has come close to in the past except for Matt Holliday. 

Even with the struggles of the BP until the last week or so, the Cards have the best team ERA in all of MLB at 3.03.  Where it gets almost unbelievable is the SP’s ERA of 2.25, which is almost a full run better than the Nationals SP’s who are second at 3.22. 

As the Mets come to town with their 14-20 record, all signs point to the Cards taking at least 3 of 4 in the series.  The Mets have one SP with an ERA under 4.63 in Matt Harvey (1.44), and we don’t have to face him as he pitched today.

Here are the SP matchups:

Game 1:  Jeremy Hefner (0-4, 4.63 ERA) vs. Lance Lynn (5-1, 2.72 ERA)

Game 2:  Dillon Gee (2-4, 5.55 ERA) vs. John Gast (MLB debut)

Game 3:  Shaun Marcum (0-3, 8.59 ERA) vs. Shelby Miller (5-2, 1.58 ERA)

Game 4:  Jon Niese (2-4, 5.93 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (5-2, 2.30 ERA)

I hate having to say the Cards need to win 3 of 4 in a series in May, but when you’re playing at home against SP’s with numbers like the Mets have, I feel you almost have to.  Due to the injury to Jake Westbrook, John Gast will make his first MLB start.  Gast is 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA at Memphis in 7 starts in 2013.  He’s a lefty that lives with location.  He has a fastball around 89-91, a plus change-up and a better than average curveball.  Chalk another one up to the great Cards farm system, the gift that keeps on giving.

There’s not much to say about the Mets.  David Wright (.297 AVG, .417 OBP, 5 HR’s), Lucas Duda (.368 OBP, 8 HR’s) and John Buck (10 HR’s, 29 RBI’s) are having decent years, the Cards just can’t let those guys beat them.  The Mets are lucky to be at 14-20 with the numbers they have across the board.  They’re 14th in UZR at -9.9, 13th in AVG at .234, 11th in OBP at .306 and have the 4th highest K rate as an offense at 22.1%.  They have a 4.39 ERA as a team, which is next to last (Brewers, 4.70).  In other words, they’re awful.  The only bright spot on this team aside from Harvey is closer Bobby Parnell and his 1.10 ERA and 0.73 WHIP, but he’s just 3 for 5 in save opportunities. 

The only thing that will keep the Mets out of the cellar in the NL East are the Marlins, and it will be a coin flip to determine which club, either the Marlins or the Astros will have the worst record in all of MLB in 2013, with the Mets and Cubs close behind.  The Mets have also had the luxury of playing 21 games at home (9-12) and only 13 on the road (5-8).

Like I said, winning less than 3 of 4 in this series for the Cards would be a head scratcher.  The Cards have everything going for them right now…a fresh BP, dominant SP and an offense that can put up 6 with ease when they’re in sync.  Then again, these are exactly the types of teams I think some of us worry about playing.

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Young arms help Cards streak to 6 in a row

Posted on May 6, 2013 by JD

Like I had said after the Q and A with Cards GM John Mozeliak, he wasn’t going to let a few bad BP arms destroy the Cards 2013 season.  The Cards have plenty of depth in the minors with their #1 ranked farm system and aren’t afraid to use it, and use it early.  When Mo talked about Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha at that time, he was more than confident they could step in and get the job done right away.  After watching Martinez pitch a couple of times against the Brewers after replacing Mitchell Boggs in the BP, we now know why he was tabbed with having the most electric arm in the Cards farm system.

Seth Maness, the Cards 2012 minor league POY, also made his presence known.  Maness pitched in two games over the weekend against the Brewers and got his first win as well as the first win for a Cardinal pitcher that didn’t come from one of the SP’s.  What seemed to be a weakness a week ago is now a strength.  Many may think I’m jumping the gun with that statement, but it’s hard to imagine that opposing hitters are going to get good wood on Martinez with regularity.  Manager Mike Matheny now has innings 7-9 covered with Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal and Edward Mujica.

It will be interesting to see how Maness is used.  He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he is a control freak.  In over 250 IP in the minors, he had 18 walks.  He gets weak swings on balls on the corners, and he’ll live or die there.  So far, I like what I see.  Matheny put him in a crucial spot on Saturday and he came through unharmed.

These moves help the club in more than one way.  They also allow Joe Kelly and Fernando Salas to try and work out their issues in situations in which the Cards are way ahead or way behind.  I’m not sure how long the leash will be for either one, but they both still have options and can be shipped down for replacements if need be.  Eric Fornataro or John Gast may be next in line if they continue to struggle.  I’m not sure if Wacha will be used before September, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was brought up earlier based on needs.

After sweeping 4 games in Milwaukee, the Cards now are tied for the best record in baseball.  The SP’s continue to lead the way.  Adam Wainwright ran into a bit of trouble Saturday, but the BP and offense picked him up.  Right now, the Cards SP’s are easily alone at the top as the best starting staff in the NL.  They have the best ERA at 3.09 and have given up the fewest HR’s at 20.  The Reds have played one more game than the Cards and lead them in K’s by only 11 amongst SP’s.

If case you hadn’t noticed, Jon Jay changed his stance and swing.  After sitting out a few days last week and working with John Mabry, Bengie Molina and Carlos Beltran, Jay looks like a different hitter.  I can’t imagine doing something your entire career, making changes in a few days and then seeing results right away.  Not only is Jay driving the ball, he’s no longer pulling his front leg to first base on every swing.  The helicopter hands are gone.  Thumbs up to Jay and all those who helped with the transition.  Hopefully the results continue to be good ones.

Pete Kozma remains a steady force at shortstop.  It’s not just that he’s had only one error, it’s the range he’s showed to his right.  He may have saved the game in the first inning Saturday with the play he made with bases loaded.  Already down 2-0, the game might have gotten away if not for Kozma’s play.  It’s nice to see the Cards sticking with their 2007 1st round draft pick.  He may never be an AS, but the Cards don’t need him to be.  Steady defense and timely hitting will be good enough.

Regardless of how Jay does with the bat, I’d like to see Matt Carpenter remain the leadoff spot.  Little Carp leads the Cards with a 4.05 P/PA and has no fear of hitting with 2 strikes unlike so many players today.

Matt Adams was set to return on Tuesday.  I haven’t heard if that’s going to be pushed back a few days due to the lack of AB’s from a snowed out game in Arkansas.  When he does return, the Cards can get back to getting Adams in there and giving Beltran, Matt Holliday and Allen Craig a few days off here and there. 

For all the talk about the Cards offense, it was only a matter of time before they broke out.  The offense is the last thing any of us should be worried about, and I don’t understand why it’s a constant source of conversation.  They haven’t all hit full stride yet, but that’s the least of my worries.

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Q and A with Cards GM John Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt III

Posted on April 30, 2013 by JD

Before the game with the Pirates on Sunday, I was treated to a Q and A session with Cards GM John Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt III in the Cards conference room along with other members of the United Cardinal Bloggers.  First, I want to give thanks to Daniel Shoptaw who writes for C70 At The Bat, and also does a great job leading the UCB.  I also want to thank Lindsey Weber, who is the Cards Public Relations Specialist.  And of course, I want to thank Mo and DeWitt III for giving us a great 45 minutes.  I also want to thank them for taking the time and providing a great experience for all of us, and allowing each of us to bring a guest.  Here’s a link to the pics gallery on the Cards website from the event.  I’m the guy sitting by my friend Jack with the red hair and his hat on his knee.

Mo took the first 30 minutes and started by giving us an update about how he felt about the Cards BP problems, certain players in the minors and things to expect with the Cardinals organization going forward.  Here are a few of the questions and answers:

One of the questions asked was more of a statement with a question mixed in about the DH.  Mo was asked if the DH was inevitable because it seems to be gaining ground on a national level.  The reply from Mo was that he doesn’t feel that it is inevitable at all.  He doesn’t see it on the horizon, and it hasn’t gained the traction among other GM’s in the NL at this point.  Mo mentioned that he’s not concerned at all about it happening anytime soon and he hopes that it doesn’t.

My question for Mo was directed at how much time he spends talking with Mike Matheny, specifically in terms of looking at the minor leagues. I asked if we could read anything into him going and watching Michael Wacha pitch in Memphis last week and the comments Matheny made about Carlos Martinez recently.  Mo responded by saying that he and Matheny get together very often, almost daily.  While impressed with Wacha and Martinez, at this point there is no hurry to rush either one, but it’s something they will revisit from time to time based on needs.  Mo emphasized the limited innings that Wacha has pitched in the minors, but did talk about how impressed the Cards were with him, as well as saying that he could see him doing what Adam Wainwright did by getting worked into the BP to start his career.  Mo is also very encouraged about Martinez and called his stuff “electric.”  Mo did seem to be fired up about the potential of both of them.

When asked about Shelby Miller and his great start, Mo literally knocked on wood (the podium) and said he has a special arm and thinks he’ll be a front of the rotation starter for years to come.

When asked about the lack of depth at shortstop and the draft, Mo said they’ll continue to draft the best player available based on their own analytics and scouts, and reminded all of us that they will jump on the opportunity to address the need long term either through the MLB draft or the international market when someone is there that makes sense.

When asked about Oscar Taveras and his comparisons to Vladimir Guerrero, Mo said that he understood the comparison, but cautioned that other than both being from the Dominican Republic and being free swingers, he thinks Taveras has better plate discipline.  Mo made sure to point out that the only players in his 18 years as a Cardinal he can compare Taveras to at this time are Albert Pujols and J.D. Drew, but made sure to point out Taveras is younger than both of them while playing in AAA.

When Mo was done, the one feeling I took away from the Q and A was that the Cardinals are not going to let a few weak links in the BP completely destroy the 2013 season.  Matheny and Mo are on the same page and not afraid or hesitant to promote within.  If the BP continues to struggle, players will be sent down and others will get a chance to prove themselves.  My next question would have been how long will they wait to get guys to get straightened out, but after seeing Seth Maness come up from AAA to replace Scrabble yesterday, I think you have your answer.  I also wanted to ask about Mitchell Boggs and why he decided to change his stance after coming off such a great year and who was behind the change, but again, time was short.

DeWitt III took the podium after Mo, and most of the questions were about the red vs. blue road hats, Ballpark Village and the future of Memphis as the Cards AAA club.  The answer to the red vs. blue hats was the Cards would wear the red hats on the road if the other team wasn’t in red, otherwise blue will be worn.  A vote was taken in the room as well, and just like in online polls, it was split.  DeWitt said the Cards plan to stay in Memphis a long time and it’s nothing to worry about.  In regards to Ballpark Village, here’s a good link to the exact words.  Daniel over at C70 will have a good post regarding the event in the next day or two as well I’m sure.

Thanks for reading….J.D.

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Cards SP leads the way

Posted on April 25, 2013 by JD

The Cardinals swept the Nationals in Washington with the things that define championship teams, leading with dominant starting pitching.  In a time in which the BP is having some problems in the middle innings, the Cards SP’s are stepping up in a big way, and leading all of MLB with a 2.35 ERA.  They’re also second in the NL in K’s with 121.  Shelby Miller and Adam Wainwright turned in dominating performances, and Jaime Garcia did just enough to get a road win.  Edward Mujica looks like he’s going to be closing out games for quite a while, and Joe Kelly looks he may have found himself again.  Trevor Rosenthal is still having a few problems with control on his fastball, but he looks close.

It’s early in the year, but if the Cards go down to the wire with the Reds and come out on top, this is one of those series they can look back on as a reason why.  Losing close games was something that appeared to carry over from last year up until the first game in Washington.  After winning that game 3-2, the Cards followed it up with 2-0 and 4-2 wins in games 2 and 3. 

Wainwright has an amazing stat line of 4-1, a 1.93 ERA, 37 K’s in 37.1 IP, a 1.05 WHIP and only 1 walk. If he didn’t get hit in his throwing shoulder with a line drive in the first game of the year at Arizona, he may be 5-0.  All of his pitches are working.  His cutter is cutting in hard to LHB’s, staying out of the middle of the plate unlike in 2012, and his curveball has a nasty bite on it.  Who out there really doubted the performances being delivered from Waino?

Miller is getting it done with the 4-seam fastball.  He’s locating it very well, and Yadier Molina is calling for Miller’s breaking balls at the right time.  So far, Miller is more than living up to the hype.  Garcia did a good job yesterday with keeping the ball down until the 6th inning.  Mike Matheny did the right thing by pulling him at a time when the game could have got out of hand.

The good news about where the Cards stand right now is that the team still isn’t firing on all cylinders on offense.  The Cards are getting timely hits, leading the league in hitting with RISP and also leading the league in RISP with 2 outs at .308, but Allen Craig, David Freese and Matt Holliday aren’t in full stride yet.  Craig has no HR’s on an OBP of .284.  Freese also has no HR’s and is hitting .211.  Holliday only has 2 HR’s in 68 AB’s, but he’s the last guy I’m worried about. 

Jon Jay is hitting .205, and I’m sure he’ll improve, but I’m still not sold on him being as a long term answer in CF.  His defense has been as bad as his offense, constantly taking bad routes to balls and runners always taking an extra base because of his weak arm.  I welcome the idea of Shane Robinson getting a good share of the playing time in CF.  The Cards are a -9 on runs saved, and Jay makes up for -6 of that.

I like Matt Carpenter being the leadoff hitter.  He works the counts with his incredible plate discipline, and is among the best in baseball in pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) at 4.06.  I think Matheny should leave him there, and I think he will.  In his new role as the 2B, Carpenter is a +1 on defense in runs saved.

It was great that the Cards didn’t have to risk using Matt Adams in Washington.  Hopefully, his oblique strain is not something serious, and we should know the extent of it by Sunday if not sooner.  Having him on the bench is going to be critical as far as resting Carlos Beltran, Holliday and Craig, as well as always having a thunderous bat late in the game regardless of who sits.

The NL Central has 4 teams playing great baseball right now, and the Cards aren’t going to catch a break with the Pirates coming to town.  Once again they have it going right to start the year and we can no longer look at them as an easy series.  The Pirates will be fired up to play the Cardinals, and Jake Westbrook will need to step up his performance in game 2 and try to reverse his trend against Pittsburgh.

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